TMD expects Arnab to miss Thailand as 12 provinces face rain alert on October 26

The Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) reported on October 26, 2026, that Cyclone Arnab was forecast to head towards India without entering or directly affecting Thailand. A separate heavy-rain alert covered 12 southern Thai provinces that evening.

The TMD based its assessment on storm-track information from the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) in New Delhi, dated October 26 at 8.30am Indian time.

The TMD cautioned that Arnab’s forecast track and intensity could change and advised the public to continue following its weather updates.

Monsoon trough and low pressure drive southern Thailand’s rain

The TMD attributed the persistent heavy rain in southern Thailand on October 26 to a monsoon trough extending across the South towards the cyclone, together with a low-pressure area over the central part of southern Thailand.

The TMD’s explanation distinguished the rainfall associated with these weather systems from a direct impact by Arnab, whose predicted route did not lead towards Thailand.

Twelve southern provinces covered by October 26 rain alert

The TMD’s one-to-three-hour rainfall outlook for 6pm to 9pm Thai time on October 26 warned of heavy rain and isolated torrential downpours in the following 12 southern provinces:

- Phang Nga
- Surat Thani
- Phuket
- Nakhon Si Thammarat
- Krabi
- Trang
- Phatthalung
- Satun
- Songkhla
- Pattani
- Yala
- Narathiwat

The TMD warned that heavy rainfall in the 12 southern provinces could trigger flash floods and advised residents to check which areas were at risk.