Strengthening El Niño raises global weather risks into 2027
WMO forecasts a near-100% chance that El Niño will persist through February 2027, with further strengthening expected before the year ends.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned of worsening heat, drought and flood risks from a strengthening El Niño, with forecasts putting the chance of the event lasting through February 2027 at nearly 100%.
In its September 3 update, the United Nations weather and climate agency said it had never expressed such certainty in an El Niño/La Niña outlook, reflecting strong agreement across its international forecasting network.
Exceptionally warm Pacific waters are expected to fuel further intensification before the event peaks towards the end of 2026. It is forecast to reach very strong intensity, often described as a “super El Niño”, with climate effects continuing beyond the peak.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres described a world in the “danger zone of extreme weather” and called for action to protect people.
Potentially strongest event in more than 70 years
The event could become the strongest since at least 1950, according to an August assessment by Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California.
Swain told WIRED that, apart from long-term warming, this could be one of the largest climate events experienced by anyone alive. He warned that the consequences could be so extensive that their full scale was not yet understood, and cautioned against certainty about precisely how they would unfold.
Ocean heat adds to global warming
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern associated with unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. It adds heat to the atmosphere and disrupts rainfall patterns, compounding the effects of human-driven climate change.
The additional warming raises the prospect of 2027 becoming the hottest year on record. WMO’s longer-range climate outlook has identified next year as a potential record-breaker because of the expected influence of El Niño.
Separately, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) warned in a September 2 report that global warming was likely to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels within the next few years. That threshold concerns long-term warming, rather than the temperature recorded in a single unusually hot year.
Water shortages and fisheries disruption
WIRED reported that the United States had experienced its hottest summer on record, with El Niño contributing to the heat.
In Sudan, low water levels in the Nile are worsening an existing hunger crisis. Puerto Rico has imposed water rationing amid drought, with infrastructure problems also contributing to shortages.
Unusually warm waters are also disrupting eastern Pacific fisheries. The effects are uneven, with some fisheries suffering losses while others benefit from changes in fish distribution.
WMO cautioned that local impacts depend on geography, season and other climate influences, not simply the strength of El Niño.
Guterres described a race between rising risks and the determination to act on climate change and protect lives. “We must win that race,” he said.
