UN Tourism cuts 2026 global arrivals growth forecast to 1–2%
Global tourist arrivals rose just 0.4% in the first half of 2026 as war and rising costs weighed on travel, with Southeast Asia down 1%
- UN Tourism has reduced its 2026 global tourist arrivals growth forecast to 1–2%, down from a previous projection of 3–4%.
- The downgrade is primarily attributed to the Middle East conflict, higher oil prices, and persistent inflation, which are putting pressure on travel costs and consumer confidence.
- The revised forecast reflects weak performance in the first half of 2026, where arrivals grew by only 0.4% and fell by 1% in the second quarter.
- The slowdown is driven by a significant 22% drop in arrivals in the Middle East, with other regions like Southeast Asia and Western Europe also experiencing declines.
UN Tourism has lowered its forecast for growth in international tourist arrivals worldwide in 2026 to 1–2%, from the 3–4% projected in January, as the Middle East conflict, higher oil prices and inflation put pressure on travel.
The latest World Tourism Barometer recorded an estimated 690 million international tourist arrivals between January and June 2026, about 3 million more than a year earlier. The increase amounted to just 0.4%, reflecting the strain on the sector from geopolitical uncertainty and rising costs.
UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais said: “The latest data shows a sector absorbing real pressure and finding a way forward. Tourism has not stopped growing, but that growth is fragile. The Middle East situation has touched destinations far beyond the region itself and serves as a clear reminder that, in such a connected world, resilience needs to be built everywhere and not just when a crisis begins.”
Global arrivals fall in second quarter
International tourist arrivals rose 2% year on year in the first quarter of 2026 before falling 1% in the second quarter. April recorded a 3% decline, largely reflecting the Easter holiday period beginning in March and the effects of the Middle East conflict.
Global arrivals also fell 3% in June. A 6% drop in Western Europe contributed to the decline, with heatwaves affecting some destinations.
Oceania recorded a 6% fall in arrivals in June, while some destinations in the subregion were affected by Typhoon Sinlaku during the second quarter.
Southeast Asia declines as wider region grows
Southeast Asia received 5% fewer international tourist arrivals in June. UN Tourism attributed the decline to weaker demand from Asian markets, geopolitical tensions, disruption to air travel through the Middle East and higher travel costs.
Over the first six months of 2026, Southeast Asian arrivals fell 1% compared with the same period in 2025.
Asia and the Pacific nevertheless recorded overall growth of 1% in the first half, although arrivals remained 11% below 2019 levels. Disrupted air connections, higher fares and uncertainty continued to affect travel demand within the region.
Middle East arrivals drop 22%
The Middle East recorded a 22% decline in international tourist arrivals in the first half of 2026 as the conflict directly affected the region. Africa and Europe posted stronger growth, while the Americas expanded despite mixed results across subregions.
International tourist arrivals in January–June 2026, compared with the same period in 2025:
The conflict has affected tourism in the Middle East and beyond since early March 2026. However, air traffic disruption gradually eased in May and June following the announcement of a ceasefire, allowing some routes to reopen and bringing an uneven recovery in consumer confidence.
Outlook depends on conflict and travel costs
UN Tourism said the outlook for the rest of 2026 would depend on how long the conflict lasts and its effects on oil prices and overall inflation.
International travellers are expected to continue prioritising value for money, choosing destinations closer to home or taking domestic holidays in response to elevated prices and persistent uncertainty.
