Vietnam risks severe power shortages by 2030 as demand surges
Vietnam’s trade ministry proposes rooftop solar and battery storage as data centres, AI, semiconductor plants and electrified transport reshape power demand.
- Vietnam is projected to face a severe electricity shortage of approximately 61 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) by 2030, with the supply gap expected to widen rapidly after 2027.
- The risk is driven by a surge in demand from electricity-intensive industries such as data centres, artificial intelligence (AI), semiconductor manufacturing, and electrified transport.
- Significant delays in new power generation and grid infrastructure projects are compounding the issue, with only 5% of the capacity planned under Power Development Plan VIII (PDP8) having been brought into service.
- Northern Vietnam is identified as particularly exposed to shortages due to its concentration of industrial expansion and new high-demand projects.
Vietnam could be short of roughly 61 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity in 2030, according to a Ministry of Industry and Trade assessment that weighs rising demand from data centres, artificial intelligence (AI), semiconductor manufacturing and electrified transport against delays to new generation and grid capacity.
Vietnam’s supply gap could widen rapidly after 2027
For 2027, the Ministry of Industry and Trade estimates a capacity deficit of about 4,256 megawatts (MW) and an energy shortage of 2.9 billion kWh.
The projected energy gap then climbs to 20.7 billion kWh in 2028, 50.4 billion kWh in 2029 and around 61 billion kWh in 2030.
Projections from the Ministry of Industry and Trade point to northern Vietnam as especially exposed.
Rapid industrial expansion and a concentration of new high-demand projects could place added pressure on both power generation and transmission infrastructure.
Solar and storage form the proposed near-term response
The Ministry of Industry and Trade proposes using state funding to put about 2,800 MW of rooftop solar on hospitals, schools and government offices, with completion targeted before June 2027.
Industrial facilities and sites within industrial clusters could be encouraged to combine rooftop solar with battery energy storage systems (BESS).
The proposed target is 3,000 to 5,000 MW before the dry seasons of 2027 and 2028, alongside a separate 2 to 3 gigawatts (GW) of battery storage for peak demand.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade says around 1 GW of additional generation should enter operation in 2027.
It also wants 3 GW of solar and 2 GW of onshore and nearshore wind brought into operation in 2028 from projects that already have investment approval and selected investors.
Few power and grid projects have entered operation
Ministry data show that almost three years of implementing the revised Power Development Plan VIII (PDP8) have brought only about 5 per cent of planned generation capacity into service.
Several major generation and grid projects are therefore unlikely to begin operating before 2030.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade reports that roughly 45 per cent of projects have no investment approval, while another 12 per cent have approval but no selected investor.
Investors have been selected for 28 per cent, although construction has not begun, and 9 per cent are under construction but not yet operating.
Vietnam’s transmission programme is also behind schedule: construction has begun on only 10 of the 43 major projects planned for 2026 to 2030.
PDP8 review covers new demand and delayed baseload
The Ministry of Industry and Trade is reviewing and updating PDP8 to account for rapid changes in the pattern of electricity use and determine whether generation and grid capacity will be sufficient through 2030 and beyond.
The review comes as Vietnam pursues rapid economic growth and seeks to attract electricity-intensive industries.
Provincial and municipal authorities have been asked to report the status of existing and planned power projects and forecast emerging loads.
The requested demand data cover the proposed North-South high-speed railway, metro systems, electric-vehicle charging infrastructure, AI facilities and data centres.
Vietnam’s revised planning approach considers location, timing and reliability as well as total consumption.
A data centre or AI facility can need hundreds of MW at one site around the clock; semiconductor and other high-technology plants require highly stable supplies; and electrified railways distribute large loads along transport corridors.
Vietnam’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects depend on ports, LNG storage, regasification facilities and gas pipelines being completed.
Volatile global fuel prices, financing difficulties and lengthy negotiations over power purchase agreements create further obstacles.
The revived Ninh Thuan 1 and Ninh Thuan 2 nuclear power projects still have no clear implementation timetable.
That uncertainty could leave a significant supply gap beyond 2030, with AI infrastructure and high-speed rail expected to expand rapidly.
For the longer term, the Ministry of Industry and Trade proposes adjusting PDP8 to permit additional coal-fired generation projects to compensate for delayed baseload capacity, while adding renewable projects that can be developed quickly.
Experts said electricity prices had yet to become sufficiently attractive to investors.
They also said prolonged inspections and project reviews had created uncertainty.
At a meeting on major national and energy projects in late August, Permanent Deputy Prime Minister Pham Gia Tuc called for obstacles to power projects to be removed promptly.
He also called for sufficient electricity supplies to support socio-economic development, particularly the government’s target of double-digit economic growth.
Source: Vietnam News
