Gold producers’ hoarding could push prices higher long term

Gold-producing countries including Laos, Indonesia and China are moving to keep more of their output at home through domestic refining, export controls and purchases for national reserves, a shift that could tighten international supplies and support prices in the longer term. Nikkei Asia describes the trend as a growing form of resource nationalism, with mining countries trying to retain more of the wealth generated by their deposits. Weakening confidence in the US dollar is adding to the incentive to accumulate gold.

London and New York remain major gold-trading centres, but production increasingly lies in emerging economies. More domestic stockpiling and restrictions on exports could leave less metal available to international buyers.

Gold’s rally raises stakes for mining nations

The rise in gold prices has increased the value of producers’ underground resources. London gold first reached US$1,000 per troy ounce in 2008, exceeded US$2,000 in 2020 and hit a record above US$5,500 in January 2026. Prices subsequently retreated but remained above US$4,000.

Gold has risen roughly twelvefold over the past 30 years, alongside growing investment demand and purchases by China and other emerging economies seeking to increase their reserves.

Developing countries with gold deposits are questioning why they should receive mainly the proceeds from selling raw ore while refining, trading and much of the added value accrue overseas.

In countries lacking refining capacity, some gold ore is smuggled abroad and is believed to sell for substantially less than its market value. Retaining processing activity at home offers producers a way to capture more of the economic benefits.

Laos develops a domestic gold market

Laos is building refining capacity and a domestic bullion market so that more of the value of locally mined gold remains in the country. Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone said in early September 2026 that developing the gold industry was a priority for strengthening the country’s economic foundations.

Laos is expected to graduate from the United Nations’ least-developed-country category, but income levels remain below those of neighbours such as Thailand. The government sees its gold deposits as another potential source of national wealth.

Laos produced about 12 tonnes of mined gold in 2025, ranking sixth in Asia, according to the World Gold Council and research consultancy Metals Focus. Lao authorities estimate that the country has between 500 and 1,000 tonnes of gold reserves underground.

Much of Laos’s gold has historically left the country as ore through official and unofficial channels. The government’s new strategy aims to have locally mined gold refined domestically.

The Lao government established Lao Bullion Bank in 2024, with capital from local companies, to help develop the country’s precious-metals market. The bank’s role includes expanding refining capacity and providing a trusted market where citizens can buy and sell gold to preserve the value of their savings.

Lao Bullion Bank also forms part of efforts to increase gold’s share of the country’s foreign exchange reserves. In January 2026, the bank signed a memorandum of understanding with the Japan Bullion Market Association to draw on Japanese expertise in developing a mature precious-metals market. 

Indonesia taxes exports as China adds to reserves

Indonesia has imposed a gold export tax of up to 15%, while China is expanding its gold reserves as both countries work to retain more metal at home. Indonesia, the world’s tenth-largest producer, mines more than 100 tonnes a year, yet domestic supplies are insufficient to meet growing investment demand. 

China, the world’s largest gold producer, mines more than 380 tonnes annually, roughly one-tenth of global output, while also remaining a major importer. Restrictions on taking gold out of the country help retain supplies within its economy.

The People’s Bank of China added about 20 tonnes to its gold reserves in August 2026, its 22nd consecutive month of net purchases. Nikkei Asia described the run as the longest since comparable records began in December 1999. 

Madagascar’s central bank is also buying domestically produced gold to increase its reserves and reduce outflows.

Ghana, the world’s sixth-largest gold producer, signed a memorandum of understanding with the World Gold Council in July 2026 to tackle illegal mining and strengthen its gold supply chain. The agreement aims to help the country and its communities retain more of the benefits from their mineral resources. 

Dollar concerns and US rates pull gold in different directions

Concerns about reliance on the dollar are encouraging countries to accumulate gold, while higher US interest rates weigh on prices in the near term. The freezing of dollar-denominated assets under sanctions against countries at odds with the United States has exposed the risks of concentrating reserves in the US currency.

Geullim Yum, director of Japan foreign exchange and commodity sales at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), said scrutiny of the dollar-centred financial system was increasing gold’s importance as an asset that was not tied to any single country’s policies.

Central banks’ efforts to reduce dependence on the dollar, alongside producers’ determination to retain more metal and processing value at home, could strengthen gold’s role as a reserve asset and support longer-term demand.

Gold prices nevertheless face pressure from US interest rates in the near term. The metal traded at about US$4,110 per troy ounce on September 28, around 12% below its late-August high of nearly US$4,700.

The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates in September for the first time in more than three years, and markets expected at least one further increase before the end of 2026. Higher rates reduce the relative appeal of gold, which pays no interest. Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

Nikos Kavalis, Singapore-based managing director of Metals Focus, said producers’ efforts to retain more gold would affect major international refiners’ ability to obtain raw material. Nikkei Asia’s report suggests that wider adoption of these policies could tighten global availability and become another source of upward price pressure in the years ahead.