Brent gains 1.8% on October 12 after Saudi Arabia attacks
Brent reached its highest close since September 15 as attacks on Saudi Arabia outweighed the prospect of more Russian diesel supplies
- Brent crude oil rose 1.8% to US$106.65 a barrel on October 12, its highest settlement since September 15.
- The price increase was driven by intensified supply concerns following attacks on Saudi Arabia, including a Houthi missile attack on Riyadh's airport and on oil tankers.
- Analysts noted that the attacks on one of the world's largest producers and on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz directly contributed to lifting prices.
- The supply fears from the attacks outweighed downward price pressures, such as the prospect of additional Russian diesel exports and a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire covering energy infrastructure.
Brent crude rose 1.8% to US$106.65 a barrel on October 12, 2026, as attacks on Saudi Arabia intensified supply concerns, outweighing the prospect of additional Russian diesel exports and an announced Russia–Ukraine ceasefire covering energy infrastructure.
Brent’s US$1.93 increase brought its highest settlement since September 15. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained US$1.89, or 2%, to settle at US$93.74 a barrel.
Attacks on Saudi Arabia and tankers threaten oil supplies
The Iran-aligned Houthis claimed responsibility for an October 10 attack on Riyadh’s international airport that killed 13 people and injured more than 300. Further attacks on October 11 heightened the threat to crude supplies from Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s largest producers.
“The shocking Houthi missile attack on Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh airport will obviously escalate the retaliation against the Houthis in Yemen,” investor and analyst Louis Navellier wrote in a note. “Right now, Saudi Arabia’s refineries are operating, but five were temporarily closed when a pipeline to the Red Sea was closed after missile attacks.”
Renewed tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz during October threaten the recovery in Middle Eastern crude exports seen in September. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported two incidents over October 10–11: a drone struck one tanker near Sohar in Oman, while another was damaged while passing through Hormuz.
“The sense of some kind of normality of exports from the Strait of Hormuz was shattered last week. Fresh attacks by the Houthis on Saudi Arabia added to this and helped to lift prices,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, a commodities analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEB).
“Hard choices over what to defend will increasingly have to be made: oil infrastructure, military installations, royal palaces, civilian airports or other,” Schieldrop added.
Goldman Sachs raises December Brent forecast to US$90
Goldman Sachs lifted its December Brent forecast to US$90 a barrel from US$85, putting the risk premium at just over US$20 a barrel.
Goldman Sachs expects high shipping costs between the United States and Europe to keep WTI below Brent, forecasting an average of US$81 a barrel in December 2026 and US$73 in 2027.
Shell, Chevron and BP were working to redeploy staff and restore production at their Gulf of Mexico platforms after Hurricane Isaias made landfall early on October 10.
Russian diesel pledge sends gasoil futures lower
Gasoil futures on Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) fell 2.3% to US$1,449 a tonne after US President Donald Trump announced on October 9 that Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel, equivalent to about 2.25 million barrels, to US and global markets. Trump indicated that further supplies would follow.
“The release will be developing gradually through the rest of this year and the expected amounts during the coming month don’t appear capable of forcing much additional downside price pressure,” said Jim Ritterbusch, an analyst with Ritterbusch & Associates in Florida. Ritterbusch expected little price relief before the US midterm elections on November 3, about three weeks away.
“The immediate impact of the deal is questionable, as Russia’s refining capacity has been severely reduced,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates.
Varga noted that Moscow had partially lifted its diesel-export ban, allowing 500,000 tonnes, or about 3.7 million barrels, onto the international market. Varga compared that volume with roughly one day of US diesel consumption and around 13% of global diesel demand.
Trump unexpectedly announced on October 11 that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to a ceasefire covering energy infrastructure. Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russia of violating the energy ceasefire on October 12, while Russia did not comment.
International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol urged all members to assess whether further diesel releases were needed. Birol also called on countries that had not fully delivered their pledged volumes to accelerate releases and give priority to diesel.
