Brent falls 1% on November 3 amid hopes for peace deals
Russia, Ukraine and the US plan talks on November 10–11, while Qatar mediates between Washington and Tehran as oil markets weigh supply risks.
- Brent crude oil futures fell by about 1% on November 3, settling at US$103.60 a barrel, their lowest point since October 7.
- The price drop was primarily driven by hopes for peace deals to end the wars in Ukraine and Iran, which would ease threats to global oil supplies.
- Upcoming peace negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States in Abu Dhabi fueled expectations that more Russian oil could reach international markets.
- Mediation efforts by Qatar between the U.S. and Iran also contributed to the downward pressure on prices, despite ongoing military actions in the region.
Brent crude futures closed at US$103.60 a barrel on November 3, 2026, their lowest settlement since October 7, as hopes of ending the wars in Ukraine and Iran pushed oil prices lower despite renewed threats to supplies. Brent lost US$1.17, or about 1%, during the session.
US West Texas Intermediate crude settled 37 cents lower at US$96.09 a barrel, its weakest close since October 14.
Abu Dhabi talks offer prospect of increased Russian oil exports
Russia, Ukraine and the United States will hold three-way peace negotiations in Abu Dhabi on November 10–11, the Kremlin confirmed. An agreement ending Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could enable more Russian oil to reach international markets.
US energy data ranked Russia as the world’s third-largest crude producer in 2025, behind the United States and Saudi Arabia. Restrictions intended to keep Russian energy off global markets following Moscow’s 2022 invasion have helped underpin oil prices.
Russia nevertheless launched a large attack on Ukraine’s energy system ahead of the planned negotiations, using dozens of missiles and hundreds of drones and leaving extensive areas without electricity.
Ukraine also struck Russian oil infrastructure overnight, with a drone attack setting a major refinery in Yaroslavl on fire, according to the regional governor.
Attacks on cargo vessels near Romania and Bulgaria, both NATO members, have added to the risks surrounding the conflict. Reuters described the widening maritime confrontation between Russia and Ukraine as a growing challenge for NATO in the Black Sea.
Qatar presses for US–Iran agreement despite continuing attacks
Qatar has intensified its mediation between Washington and Tehran to prevent further escalation after the US midterm elections. A spokesperson for Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said both sides remained engaged in the process and were considering proposals intended to narrow their differences.
A senior Iranian official, however, told Reuters that Iran and the United States were still a long way from reaching an agreement to end their war.
ING cautioned in a note: “Despite these positive signals, it's probably too early to think escalation risks have passed.” The bank added: “What is clear, though, is that strong signals of progress in peace talks would mean more downside for prices.”
US forces struck Iran’s Qeshm Island overnight, targeting surface-to-air missiles that had been used against US assets, according to a US official. A second official characterised the operation as limited and said it did not indicate a resumption of major combat operations.
US President Donald Trump also announced an agreement with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu under which Washington would stop providing US$4 billion in funding to Israel after the end of 2026.
The November 3 US midterm elections were another focus as voters determined whether Trump’s Republican Party would retain control of Congress for the remainder of his second term. Opinion polls and non-partisan analysts expected Democrats to take the House of Representatives, while control of the Senate remained uncertain.
Aramco develops Hormuz bypass as Venezuelan exports hold steady
Saudi state oil company Aramco is working to expand a crude pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, chief executive Amin Nasser said.
The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which previously carried 20% of global oil supplies between the Gulf and international markets, has altered energy trade routes and the infrastructure investment priorities of regional producers.
Venezuela’s oil exports, meanwhile, remained broadly unchanged at 1.08 million barrels per day in October, according to shipping data reviewed by Reuters. Stagnant crude production and elevated freight costs continued to constrain demand for many South American oil grades.
US crude stocks expected to record first increase in five weeks
Analysts expect US crude inventories to have risen by 0.9 million barrels in the week ended October 30. Such an increase would be the first in five weeks, compared with a build of 5.2 million barrels in the corresponding week of 2025.
The market was awaiting weekly inventory reports from the American Petroleum Institute trade group on November 3 and the US Energy Information Administration on November 4.
