Diplomatically confused about Thaksin? Let it be

London has not said a word on Thaksin’s possible visit to Manchester, and neither has the UK Embassy here. But after the likes of Japan, Germany, France and Russia welcomed him with varying degrees of open arms, it’s now understood that Britain may get on the bandwagon. Although the shifts in international diplomacy, where Thaksin is concerned, fly in the face of his unchanged (at least for now) legal status, those countries can’t be totally faulted. When Thailand’s ruling party all but officially endorsed Thaksin’s reunion with his red-shirt supporters in Laos and Cambodia over the weekend, foreign governments did not have many choices.

The man is giving diplomacy its biggest headache. Britain, for one, had sheltered him, allowed him to buy one of its biggest football clubs, then kicked him out, and now seems ready to open the door for him again. A diplomat of another country admitted that his government had to flip-flop on Thaksin, but “What else are we supposed to do?” Exactly. Political winds keep changing in Thailand. One Thai government wants him arrested, but another lobbies its foreign counterparts for the red carpet to be laid out for him.

There are also big business interests to worry about. Treating Thaksin like a criminal may be a virtue one minute and a sin (to be paid for in lost trade opportunities) the next. The US has been fortunate enough to be able to avoid the Thaksin dilemma, but his craving for international recognition to spite his political enemies will only get stronger, and he should be fluttering his eyelids at Washington soon. “New York, I Love You” may be already be on the cards.

Foreign leaders can find condolence in Snoh Thienthong. He is trapped in a cycle of loving, hating and loving Thaksin again. “My worst memory is going on stage once to raise his hand and proclaim him a hero,” Snoh told a group of journalists when Thaksin’s star was low. Over the weekend Snoh popped up to pay Thaksin homage. It was a travesty, Snoh declared, for a man who is welcomed anywhere else to not be able to return to his homeland.

Which brings us to probably the most intriguing of Thaksin’s hosts. Hun Sen has been bold about the way he treats his exiled friend and Thailand, but the Cambodian prime minister may just be showing in a no-nonsense way that national interests come first. “Democracy”, meanwhile, may be a nice word when you make a diplomatic stand, but that’s all.

Thaksin’s high-profile visit to Cambodia has failed to clear the air over two jailed Thai activists. He has admitted that Veera Somkwamkid and Ratree Pipattanapaibul were unlikely to be freed soon unless they confess their guilt. Thaksin stopped short of saying that Veera and Ratree, serving eight-year and six-year jail terms respectively after being convicted of encroaching into Cambodian territory, should make a confession. It would be ironic for Thaksin to make such a suggestion, having refused to admit his own “crimes” in Thailand himself.

Nobody knew for sure how serious Thaksin was in trying to persuade Phnom Penh to free the two Thais. Cynics may say it was an election promise and Thaksin needs to be seen as doing something. But even if Thaksin gave his all in negotiations, Hun Sen could not do things just for old time’s sake. Having allowed Thaksin to meet his Thai supporters in a big event that mocked his legal predicament in Thailand, Hun Sen was not going to weaken his leverage when it came to territorial disputes between Bangkok and Phnom Penh.

Despite the Pheu Thai Party’s rise to power and the consequent improvement in bilateral relations, the border conflict has not gone away. A big international showdown over the Preah Vihear Temple still awaits both governments, and when it comes to this issue, Hun Sen cannot compromise. Strange thing is, it’s easier diplomacy for Hun Sen, because he and Cambodia have the same agenda on the temple. The Thai government, on the other hand, will find the issue far more complex, delicate and divisive.

Thaksin crooned “Let it be” for his Thai supporters in Cambodia the other day. He apparently meant to taunt his enemies in Thailand because his Thai translation of the song’s title was “I don’t give a damn about their mothers”. The song could be a fitting message to everyone, every country, every government, every football club having to deal with the Thaksin complications. Let it be, because whether Mother Mary comes to you or not, he definitely will.

 

 

Watch Thaksin sing "Let it be" here