A new Japan?

This is in no way to belittle Japanese voters’ choice of the LDP to lead their country: they know best about their own future, and the international community is perhaps wrong in its premature judgement of the new government. However the result of Sunday’s election does not provide convincing proof that the Japanese people are ready to undergo the painful and extreme treatment needed to restore their condition.

Domestic economic issues were a top priority for the electorate, but judging by their past track record, Abe and his party will almost certainly use nationalistic rhetoric to divert voters’ attention, although this will be at the cost of Japan’s relations with its neighbours.

For Japan’s neighbours, especially China and North and South Korea, Abe’s election means that they will not need a new strategy in dealing with Japan. Few surprises are likely. Only the noises emanating from loudspeakers in Tokyo will be more raucous.

China, on the other hand, needs to give enough space for the new government to concentrate on its domestic agenda as Japan’s economic recovery will also be beneficial for China and the rest of Asia. Should China continue to press Japan, it will eventually backfire against the Chinese government itself, because in the end, the Chinese people will look at their own leaders when it comes to apportioning blame.

Regarding the 10-member Asean, the new government of Japan is unlikely to make drastic changes to its foreign policies. Japanese investment in this region will not increase, while its Official Development Assistance (ODA) plays less of a role now compared to the past as foreign loans become a more sensitive issue in many countries, including Indonesia, despite the generosity of Japanese loans compared to those in the commercial market.

A stable and prosperous Japan is pivotal in ensuring security and the balance of power in this region. A more confident Japan will encourage the nation to grow closer to its neighbours and to be more empathetic to their views.

The tensions in the South China Sea and in East Asia will invite outside powers to intervene, as smaller nations, like the Philippines, seek safety through a stronger United States presence.

At this point we remain sceptical about Abe’s government but we also hope to be proven wrong in our initial estimation of the LDP and Abe’s return to power.