Move carefully on boosting military ties with China

China is looking to expand its military-to-military ties with Thailand, and Defence Minister ACM Sukampol Suwannathat thinks it’s a good idea. Sukampol met his Chinese counterpart, Chang Wanquan, for the first time on the sidelines of the recently concluded Asean meeting of defence ministers in Brunei.

On the face of things, the idea of diversifying military ties is not such a bad idea. But in reality, such ties usually result in a degree of dependency.

Thailand has its annual Cobra Gold exercises with the US, and some defence planners may think it’s a good idea to have something similar with other major powers.

Thailand and China have held their “Blue Strike” training exercises in recent years. These exercises depart from normal military cooperation in that they are aimed at counter-terrorism.

As is always the case, moving closer militarily comes with a price tag, and the outcome is not always a win-win situation. One can talk about technicalities, such as the Royal Thai Air Force’s avionics being closely aligned to those of the US, as well as other weapon systems, and so on.

But what the Chinese are suggesting – with Sukumpol’s apparent acceptance – is much more fundamental. It’s something that could shape the course of Thailand’s international relations, security outlook and threat perception.

Perhaps it’s time that Thai policy and defence planners sit down together and think about the big strategic picture and look at ways to balance our act.

In recent years, Thailand has been moving closer and closer to the Chinese orbit. Part of the reason is that the US, Thailand’s long-standing ally, has been too busy in the Middle East and Afghanistan, as well as engaging itself in the global war on terrorism.

Furthermore, the political turmoil at home has often confused our American friends as to the future direction of Thai democracy.

A new defence agreement with the US was signed during the visit of President Barack Obama to reiterate Washington’s commitment to this country and to the region. There were some concerns here that the country could be seen as moving too close to the American orbit.

The alliance is part of a bigger Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) launched 10 years ago by then US president George W Bush to stop the spread of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

Don’t be surprised if China steps up its assertiveness as it moves to recalibrate its strategic interest. For the sake of the nation’s future, let’s hope that Sukampol foresaw China’s charm and diplomatic offensive.

But Thailand’s relations with the superpowers don’t have to be a zero-sum game. Thailand can set its “pivot” towards the US and China simultaneously without choosing sides. The problem is not these two superpowers. The problem is that this government does not have a strong and unified foreign and security policy team that can push for and articulate the country’s strategic interest at the international level.

Without it, we could be very vulnerable to outsiders’ assertiveness. Worse of all, we underestimate our own strategic value amid the new security landscape in the region while others spin ahead with their forward-looking plans.