Prayuth keeping 'happiness' cards close to his chest

The Cabinet comprises 11 representatives from the military, one from the police, 14 former or current civil servants, one NGO member and one individual from the private sector. Obviously, this government is piled high with bureaucrats. 

General Prayuth is right to have put the emphasis on security as his government’s priority. His next task is to grow the economy, followed by safeguarding the environment. But this all begs the question of how long he plans to stay on as prime minister. So far Prayuth has not provided a specific timeframe but given the impression that he will hang on to power until the reform agenda has been accomplished. At the heart of the reform plan is his intention to “return happiness” to the Thai people.

The political rhetoric is understandable, but Prayuth will be judged by his actions rather than his pledges. He has yet to tackle the causes of the polarisation in Thai society. Nor has he undertaken to uproot the militancy associated with former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is still a fugitive from justice. Immediately after the May military coup, the military rounded up those who had terrorised the country over the past six or seven years. They were held in custody, imprisoned or required to report regularly to the authorities. But now it seems that all those who caused trouble the country have been let loose.

Does Prayuth want to introduce a blanket amnesty for all the troublemakers so that Thailand can start anew? Is that what he means by returning happiness to the Thai people? If this is the case, I am afraid that Prayuth, after consolidating vast political and military power, is simply trying to sweep the garbage under the carpet. This is not the way to handle the Kingdom’s internal security. But most of us have given Prayuth the benefit of the doubt. Let him first run the country the way he sees fit, because he has shown his strong intention to do so.

As for Thailand’s external security, we will have to focus on broadening our relations with key allies, old and new. Japan’s military build-up in this region is a source of concern, not to mention the growing crisis in Ukraine where the superpowers of the West are pitted against their Eastern counterpart, and also the emergence of the Islamic State and Israel’s war in Gaza. Prayuth and his Cabinet must pursue a policy that doesn’t upset the balance of power and reflects Thailand status as a small country on the global stage. If world affairs worsen and bring military confrontations we must negotiate the storm using our diplomatic skills.

There is both good news and bad on the economic front. Let’s start with the bad news. The economy is losing steam. GDP shrank in the first half of this year. All the indicators showed a setback for consumption, government spending, exports and private investment. The only engine of growth was bank lending. This means that Thailand is borrowing money to stay afloat amid the current economic slump. Prayuth plans to rely on government investment in the mega-projects, amounting to Bt2.5 trillion, to jump-start the economy. However, tackling the energy sector has become the first order of business for his administration. Again, clarity is lacking: we don’t yet know whether Prayuth would like to reform the energy sector so that oil and gas really belong to the Thai people. Many are calling for a fair deal on exploration and production in the energy sector, one that also guarantees transparency in the financial accounting of the parties involved. But Prayuth may believe that existing practices in the energy sector are good enough and that change is not needed. On this account, we need to wait and see.

The good news is that despite the prolonged political crisis, Thailand has advanced six places to 31st in the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) global competitiveness rankings.

However, the country needs to address stiff challenges if it is to maintain its competitiveness, as rivals in Asean and elsewhere in Asia are moving up the WEF competitiveness ladder.

The Kingdom’s climb has been slow and gradual in recent years, from 39th place in 2011-2012 to 38th in 2012-2013 and 37th in 2013-2014.

Improvement this year is seen mainly in the WEF’s measure of macroeconomic environment, one of 12 categories ranging from infrastructure, health and primary education, institutions, goods market efficiency and labour market efficiency, to business sophistication and innovation. 

Thailand’s improved ranking comes as a surprise, considering that previous governments did virtually nothing to improve the country’s competitiveness. Instead they were obsessed with spending tax revenue on mega-projects that enriched the bank accounts of politicians and officials. Our climb up the rankings is thus likely to reflect a decline among our nearest rivals rather than any “real” advance in our own competitiveness. Achieved by default, it’s hardly a cause for celebration.

Finally, amid global conditions that will worsen in the coming months, Thailand must stand ready to face international turmoil. This will have an impact on the domestic economy. And it will require all of Prayuth’s extraordinary power and talent to keep Thailand afloat while at the same time maintaining law and order. Hard decisions will need to be made. Not all of the people will be pleased. The honeymoon period will be brief. Yet General Prayuth still has time to prove that he really is on the side of the Thai people and the interests of the nation as a whole.