Beijing fears HK becoming beacon of Chinese democracy
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Less than a week after tens of thousands of protesters occupied some of Hong Kong's busiest streets, the rally for an open election of Hong Kong's leader in 2017 has already earned itself a nickname and given birth to some catchphrases.
The media dubbed the protest the Umbrella Revolution and noted the demonstrators’ use of the ubiquitous “humble tool” to protect themselves “against sun, rain and tear gas.”
Several commentators noted that Hong Kong Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying, and by extension Chinese President Xi Jinping, are pressed between “crackdown or climbdown.”
As of press time, pressure was building as the midnight ultimatum issued by the Scholarism student movement – one of the organisers of the protest – for Hong Kong leader Leung to resign drew near.
Hong Kong police seemed to be gearing up for the escalation of protests promised by Scholarism as people witnessed boxes of items labelled “batons” or marked “flammable” or “corrosive” being resupplied to the officers guarding the government headquarters last night.
The Hong Kong and Chinese authorities, however, are unlikely to either crack down or climb down.
The movement will most probably end in stalemate in which the government makes concessions big enough for protesters to claim victory yet small enough to not derail Beijing’s plan to keep its control over the Hong Kong election.
These concessions might even include the eventual resignation of Leung, who is reckoned expendable by Beijing and is probably already being blamed for the way he handled the protests.
No matter the results of the current Umbrella Revolution, the tens of thousands of (mostly young) people who hit the bricks to fight for democracy in Hong Kong must realise that even if all their demands are met, their biggest fight will still be ahead of them.
Even if Beijing, in the most unlikely of circumstances, reverses course and allows public nomination of candidates for the 2017 Hong Kong chief executive election, the city will still be under China’s sovereignty and therefore its influence.
Under the Basic Law (Hong Kong’s “mini-constitution”), the Hong Kong chief executives answer both to Hong Kong and to mainland China’s central government. Every chief executive, no matter how he or she is elected, becomes the city’s leader only after appointment by Beijing.
Moreover, Hong Kong business leaders, who basically ran the city even before it became a Chinese territory, are mostly toeing the Beijing line.
Days before the Umbrella Revolution began last weekend, a “tycoon delegation” of Hong Kong’s most powerful business leaders travelled to Beijing for what was essentially an audience with Xi.
Even if Hong Kong residents are able to pick their leader from candidates not pre-screened by China, it is unlikely that the official elected can be totally free of Beijing.
The Umbrella Revolution is the result of Beijing’s failure to consider election reform proposals even by Hong Kong’s most moderate factions.
Its unwillingness to give even the tiniest symbolic concession in the previous election reform proposal pushed many Hong Kong residents to despair and eventually to the street.
True democracy in Hong Kong can only be established when it is part of a democratic nation or at least a nation that can tolerate democracy. China is currently not such a nation.
People who fight for democracy in Hong Kong should see the Umbrella Revolution as an example of democratic ideas for people in China, instead of merely as a local movement.
To achieve that, members of the Hong Kong movement should resist the temptation of xenophobic rhetoric against mainland Chinese citizens.
Chinese tourist-bashing has been an element in some of the democratic demonstrations in the past.
Currently the Umbrella Revolution has been successful in keeping its focus on the demand for democratic elections.
Beijing will no doubt seize on any anti-mainlander or anti-China sentiment to interpret the Umbrella Revolution as a snub to mainlanders. What Beijing fears most is not Hong Kong’s democracy but a scenario in which the city becomes the beacon of democracy for the whole nation.
