West speeding towards point of no return with Russia

“We’re upholding the principle that bigger nations can’t bully the small – by opposing Russian aggression, supporting Ukraine’s democracy, and reassuring our Nato allies. Last year, as we were doing the hard work of imposing sanctions along with our allies, some suggested that Mr Putin’s aggression was a masterful display of strategy and strength. Well, today, it is America that stands strong and united with our allies, while Russia is isolated, with its economy in tatters.

“That’s how America leads – not with bluster, but with persistent, steady resolve,” he said.

Relations between the US and Russia appear to have reached a point of no return. But Obama has avoided elaborating on what the US and its allies will do next in containing Russia. What is more important, though, is how Putin responds to Nato’s continuing expansion. The latest round of military clashes between Kiev and the rebels in southeast Ukraine have served to escalate the conflict. The sanctions imposed by the West gouged wounds in Russia’s economy. But they won’t bring down the Great Bear. China is standing by ready to bail out Russia if worse comes to worst. Putin is expected to hit back in the first quarter of this year, when the weather in Europe is particularly cold. A more serious crisis is looming.

Obama has called for the US Congress to authorise a war against ISIS. This he will get. But are the jihadists the real target? Since the US and allies’ began bombing ISIS targets in August last year, the militants have actually gained more territory in Syria. This serves Washington’s interests anyway, because it wants to oust the regime of Bashar al-Assad of Syria. You don’t want to bomb an enemy that is doing the job of fighting your larger enemy for you.

We are witnessing moves that escalate, rather than de-escalate, global tensions.

It is no surprise that Europe is preparing for action. The European Central Bank has just been given the green light by EU lawyers to launch US-style quantitative easing. Germany has apparently backed down from opposing the ECB’s move to flood the financial market with “cheap” euro to prop up the European banking system, stock markets and government bonds. Maybe that’s why the Germans have repatriated 120 tonnes of gold from the US and France, where they stored a chunk of their reserves over the past decades.

The ECB’s quantitative easing programme may be seen as part of preparations for growing conflict in eastern Europe, where Nato forces are augmenting their role and presence to tame Russia. We are witnessing collective insanity take hold as the Europeans follow the US leadership into a full-blown confrontation with Putin. If a war were to break out, it would cause devastation on both sides. But we are heading faster and faster towards that point of no return.