Myanmar's new dawn: High hopes clash with harsh realities
Play
Massive expectations rest on the slim shoulders of Suu Kyi, but expatriate expertise will flood back to bolster NLD rule
When 70-year-old Aung San Suu Kyi walked into Myanmar’s Parliament in Nay Pyi Taw on Monday, it was as a queen-in-waiting.
The current parliament will work through its final session until December 31, and although Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) scored a 400-seat landslide in the November 8 election, it must sit tight until January before it can take its place as the majority in parliament – and until late March to actually form a new government.
The NLD may be lapping at the fortress of the powerful military, which still has a constitutionally guaranteed 25 per cent of parliamentary seats, but until March, the country likely faces political limbo and reform uncertainty.
When the opposition party does take over to dish up the country’s first taste of civilian rule in almost 50 years, it will confront a range of challenges, from reducing poverty and building infrastructure to managing natural resources and bringing alienated ethnic minorities into the political process.
But in crowded towns and distant villages, most of the roughly 30 million voters used to military rule have high hopes of a democratic future and improved prosperity under the NLD.
In densely packed downtown Yangon it was back to business-as-usual just days after the landmark election, all political paraphernalia swept away except for next year’s calendars adorned with Suu Kyi’s face, hawked by vendors at car windows.
Behind a pile of tiny oranges, between the sidewalk stalls and sizzling woks in teeming Maha Bandoola road, first-time voter Ma Maw broke into a broad smile and flashed a thumbs-up when asked what she expects from an NLD government.
“Everything is going to change,” said the 42-year-old fruit seller emphatically. “Everything is going to be better.”
In the New York Goldsmith and Jewellery store in Yangon’s Chinatown, owner Kyin Sein, 57, is also looking forward to change. “I think there will be more freedom for business,” he said. “It will be better under an NLD government.
“When we have a real democracy, the economy will do better. We will catch up with the rest of the world. We want change, that’s why we supported the NLD.”
Asked what needs to be fixed, he could only muster an embarrassed smile and say: “I don’t know.”
It is these wide, but non-specific expectations – which equate democracy with economic growth – that will be a huge challenge for the NLD in running a complex country with multiple competing forces – among them the old military guard.
“People do have high expectations and you can’t blame them. The Lady [Suu Kyi] is a special symbol in people’s heads,” said Yangon-based development consultant Thuta Aung. “Everyone has been frustrated for a very long time and the NLD is seen as a symbol of hope.
“But they have never ruled before. In a way, she has been lucky; she has never had to perform, except as in opposition. So she hasn’t done badly, yet. She will be under pressure to perform, and when in power, she can’t get away with good speeches. And she can’t blame the party either; she is responsible because everyone voted for her party because of her.”
The coming four or five months of potential limbo will present varying degrees of uncertainty. The new parliament convenes on January 31 – yet the current government will run the country until the new president and Cabinet are appointed at the end of March.
The current government’s own reformers now have less traction.
President Thein Sein’s key men – minister Aung Min, his peace negotiator; and Soe Thane, his economic reform tsar – have lost their political capital.
Aung Min lost his seat in the election. Soe Thane won, but his ruling USDP will be reduced to a thin back-bench in the next parliament. Both are ex-generals and insiders say they knew how to deal with the army and with the military-dominated administration.
The NLD will have to learn to do both from scratch.
“There is every possibility of deadlock,” warned one Yangon-based political analyst, who asked not to be named.
Delivering on the party’s campaign promise of “real change” will not be easy, but Thuta Aung said Suu Kyi’s leadership could make the difference.
“On a positive note, because she is a very symbolic figure, she can demand things to be done and that influence can get things done,” he said.
“Everyone who is sensible will understand that the NLD has very little or no capacity, but at the same time because of her, anyone who is capable of assisting, will assist.”
Lin Zaw Min, a consultant with the Youth Development Initiative in Yangon, had a similar view. He said he was not worried about a lack of competency for key positions because Myanmar professionals living overseas would flock back to the country to help the NLD.
He acknowledged that expectations were high, but they should be tempered.
“People have to understand that you don’t build a country with one election, you build it piece by piece over decades. She [Suu Kyi] can lay the foundation and the next generation can take over.”
U Tin Oo, NLD co-founder and patron who masterminded the party’s poll campaign, acknowledged that it must build bridges.
“Even though the NLD has won the majority, we cannot neglect those who failed,” he said.
“There are some very efficient and competent Members of Parliament. We have to consider these people, even though they failed. Cooperation and collaboration is a must. We must try, for our people, to work together.”
One man in Maha Bandoola was taking it all in his stride. Retired teacher Hla Tun, 84, reading a daily newspaper with Suu Kyi on the front page, grinned widely when asked about his expectations.
“It won’t make much difference,” he said. “Whatever happens is because of karma in the past. So, I don’t get too excited about the NLD winning.”
Ten ways the military still holds power
1. The military-drafted 2008 constitution incorporated various measures to protect the Tatmadaw’s core interests and guarantee its central role in national affairs. The generals are determined to safeguard what they view as “the mother law” of Myanmar.
2. The military has rejected moves to reduce the guaranteed 25 per cent military representation in all national and regional assemblies, and to amend the constitution so that Aung San Suu Kyi can become president.
3. The constitution gives the Commander-in-Chief (CinC) of Defence Services wide discretion to intervene in Myanmar’s internal affairs, including (with the president’s approval) declaring an emergency and taking over government.
4. The military retains effective control over internal affairs thanks to a constitutional provision that the portfolios of defence, home affairs and border affairs are filled by serving military officers recommended by the CinC. The CinC also exercises effective control over at least five of the 11 members of the powerful National Defence and Security Council.
5. Attempting to weaken the Tatmadaw by trying to reduce its budget would inevitably spark countermeasures from the military on the grounds that they have a duty to ensure the country’s unity, stability and sovereignty. And the Tatmadaw is permitted by law to use other means to find the resources they need to meet their responsibilities.
6. Though military presence in the national economy has been waning since 2011 (the Tatmadaw has given up some of its monopolies) the armed forces and their powerful cronies could still exert pressure on the government by exercising their considerable economic power.
7. Among the NLD government’s most pressing challenges will be to forge peace with ethnic armies, but there is no hope of a nationwide ceasefire deal without the full cooperation of the armed forces, which are constitutionally guaranteed complete autonomy in all military affairs.
8. The government and civil service remain dominated by military and ex-military personnel. Out of 46 ministers at the national level, 37 are currently from the Tatmadaw, including five on active duty. Of the 14 chief ministers of Myanmar’s states and regions, all but one are retired military officers.
9. Eighty per cent of senior civil service positions are filled by ex-servicemen and women. Even under NLD rule, many positions of authority will be under the influence of former military officers with a strong loyalty to their old employer.
10. The military enjoys a monopoly on the means of applying physical force in Myanmar. The CinC not only controls the powerful 350,000 strong armed forces but also the 80,000 strong Myanmar Police Force (with its 30-plus armed security battalions), militia units and other paramilitary forces, the Fire Brigades and even the Myanmar Red Cross.
Source: asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newmandala/2015/11/16/the-realities-of-power-in-myanmar
