Nuclear success to intensify Iranian infighting but moderate foreign policy
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Iran’s success in winning an end to international sanctions will only intensify a power struggle among the faction-ridden elite, and President Hassan Rouhani cannot count on domestic political support from the supreme leader before two critical elections.
However, Tehran’s leadership has now decided on a less confrontational foreign policy than in the past, although a restoration of full ties with the “Great Satan” – the United States – remains out of the question, officials say.
The scrapping of most US, European Union and United Nations sanctions last Saturday under a nuclear deal with six major powers should strengthen both the economy and Shi’ite Iran’s hand in a Mideast region torn by sectarian strife.
Rouhani, a pragmatist whose 2013 election cleared the way for the thaw in relations with the outside world, owes his success to Iran’s top authority: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei endorsed the nuclear agreement, overriding hardliners who oppose dealing with Washington.
“Every move by the government was approved by the leader. The leader protected us against hardliners’ pressure,” said a senior Iranian official, involved in the talks with the six powers which led to Tehran curbing its nuclear programme in return for an end to crippling sanctions.
But hardliners, wary of Rouhani’s growing influence and popularity, have already taken off the gloves to display the limits of the president’s power at home.
They fear that voters, hopeful living standards can rise with the end of sanctions, will reward pro-Rouhani candidates in elections next month to parliament and the Assembly of Experts, a clerical body with nominal power over the supreme leader.
“People know that Rouhani’s policy ended Iran’s isolation and their economic hardship,” said another senior official. “He is their hero.”
The elections to the Assembly of Experts are likely to be crucial in determining the future path of Iran, the top Shi’ite Muslim power which plans to pump crude oil onto the global market now that the sanctions are gone.
Khamenei underwent prostate surgery in 2014 and should the 76-year-old be struck down by illness, the Assembly would have to select his successor.
Leaders at loggerheads?
Rouhani’s growing clout could put him at loggerheads with Khamenei, and any change in the balance of Iran’s complex power structure might force the supreme leader to cut the president’s domestic claws.
“On the nuclear issue, Rouhani and Khamenei are in the same boat. But Khamenei will back hardliners in their political disputes against moderates,” said a former official.
As well as the Guardian Council, which vets laws and election candidates, Khamenei controls the judiciary, the security forces, public broadcasters and foundations that control much of the economy.
The hardliners are likely to resort to a tactic they have successfully adopted in the past: finding grounds to disqualify pro-Rouhani candidates.
“I expect stormy days before the elections. Pressure will mount on Rouhani and his allies, including moderates’ mass disqualifications,” said political analyst Saeed Leylaz. Opposition leaders Mirhossein Moussavi and Mehdi Karoubi remain under house arrest following street protests against what activists say was a rigged presidential poll in 2009.
Rights groups and the UN accuse Iran of severely restricting freedom of expression, religion and the media, and criticise its high number of executions.
Release of sailors, reporter
Iran’s internal struggle is unlikely to be fought over foreign policy, where the leadership appears to have agreed on a less confrontational line. Its decision to release five Americans, including a Washington Post reporter, a few hours before sanctions were lifted displayed this change of approach.
Tehran also swiftly ended an incident earlier this month when it freed 10 US Navy sailors a day after detaining them in the Gulf.
“It was a decision made by Iran’s top authorities. It shows there is a consensus over foreign policy among our decision-makers,” said a senior security official.
Similarly hardline and pro-Rouhani authorities alike have condemned the storming of Riyadh’s embassy in Tehran early this month by protesters reacting to the execution of Shi’ite Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, an outspoken opponent of the ruling al-Saud family. Dozens were arrested, according to state media.
“Iran has already adopted a moderate foreign policy. Even the hostility with the US has transformed to a controlled one,” said Leylaz.
With Rouhani willing to improve ties with the US, Tehran and Washington will continue to cooperate on the regional crisis including the rise of Islamic State, or “Daesh”.
“Iran and America need to work together in the region ...the taboo is broken and this channel of communication will remain open between the two countries,” said the second senior official.
Tehran and Washington cut ties after Iran’s 1979Islamic revolution and radical students stormed the US embassy in Tehran, taking 52 Americans hostage for 444 days.
The official made clear there were limits to the rapprochement between Iran and the United States. “They have common interests and enemies ... Iran’s fight against Daesh in Iraq and Syria is a clear example of it.”
Yet there will be no full rapprochement, said Farahvashian: “Khamenei has made it very clear that the US was and will remain Iran’s foe.”
Under Iran’s constitution, Khamenei, and not Rouhani, has the last say on all state matters.
