A new era for South Africa?

The ANC has governed South Africa since apartheid ended and Nelson Mandela, the human rights icon, came to power in 1994. The party has won every election since then, dominating politics at the national and local levels. The margin of victory has shrunk in recent years, although some of that stems from a split in the ANC in 2008 and the departure of several top leaders. That schism did not threaten the party’s grip on power, however.

In the local elections held on August 3, however, the ANC won just 54 per cent of all votes cast. That is still a majority, but it is a symbolic defeat for a party that has won more than 60 per cent of the vote at every national election since the end of apartheid. The damage was compounded by the defeat it suffered in several key constituencies, including that of Nelson Mandela Bay, which has been the home or birthplace of several ANC leaders, Mandela among them. The ANC’s rejection here – the opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) won 46.5 per cent of votes, while the ANC claimed 41 per cent, a drop of 11 percentage points from five years ago — is the one of the most stinging rebukes possible. The DA is expected to form a coalition government there that will govern an area long considered an ANC stronghold.

The DA prevailed in several other key urban centers, such as Johannesburg and the municipality of Tshwane, where Pretoria, the capital, is located. The party also boosted its majority in Cape Town, winning more than two-thirds of the vote there.

That Cape Town result is especially disconcerting for the ANC, since the DA win is a vote of confidence, rather than a mere protest against ANC misrule. Most analysis of the vote sees the DA gains as a reflection of ANC arrogance and incompetence. Corruption allegations have swirled around the party and provided a steady drumbeat of complaint against President Jacob Zuma and tarnished his image as a man of the people.

More powerful, however, are South Africa’s economic woes. Growth is forecast to be zero in 2016 – the economy actually contracted in the first quarter of this year – while the unemployment rate has reached 7 per cent. Basic services remain shoddy and haphazard, and inequality persists: While blacks constitute 80 per cent of the population, whites, who account for just 8 per cent of the population, control the majority of land and business interests. Dissatisfaction materialised in the form of protests during the election campaign. In several cases, demonstrations turned to riots and resulted in deaths. Not surprisingly, trust in the president has plummeted from 62 per cent in 2011 to 34 per cent, according to the respected Afro-barometer polls, and a year ago 64 per cent of South Africans said the country is heading in the wrong direction.

The end of ANC rule is not assured. The DA only claimed 28 per cent of votes nationwide, and it will be forced to rule in coalition governments across the country. There is little precedent for coalitions in the major cities and the DA is likely to find it hard to find common ground with some of the smaller parties with which it must partner.

For its part, the ANC remains the majority power nationally, even though it is much diminished in strength and prestige. 

If the party leadership takes the results seriously, and adjusts its behaviour accordingly, it will be better prepared to contest the next round of national elections that are scheduled for 2019.