Global warming could inflict massive loss on agriculture: panel
Global warming could break new records next year, severely affecting the agricultural sector and potentially causing losses of over 2.85 trillion baht by the year 2045, weather experts have warned.
During a panel discussion entitled “Cope and Adapt to Prevent the Global Warming Crisis”, Associate Professor Dr Vishnu Atthavanich from the Faculty of Economics at Kasetsart University said that around 1.2 trillion trees would need to be planted just to absorb the carbon dioxide emitted in the past decade, adding that planting such a massive number of trees over a short period would be extremely challenging if not impossible.
Research evaluating the overall impact of global warming on Thai agriculture reveals that the non-irrigated agricultural regions are more vulnerable, with an estimated average annual damage of around 83 billion baht. The research projects that if the effects of global warming continue until 2045, the minimum cost to Thai agriculture could rise to 2.85 trillion baht, significantly higher than the country's current prediction of 3.3 trillion baht.
Dr Vishnu pointed out that the current El Niño phenomenon is accelerating global temperature rise beyond the historical average. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has estimated that in each month of 2023, global temperatures have been at their highest in the last 174 years. It is predicted that in 2024, the global temperature will break a new record, exceeding the pre-industrial level by 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The study highlights the vulnerability of Thai agriculture to climate change, particularly in the southern and eastern regions, which could experience severe impacts. However, the research also indicates that some regions, such as the central and northeastern areas that cultivate perennial crops like durian, may be less affected.
The research further reveals that only about 4.46% of farmers with higher education have conducted studies on climate change. Over 80% of agricultural households are subsistence farmers facing socio-economic challenges. Furthermore, only 26% of all households have access to irrigation systems, making it difficult for them to adapt to climate change. The lack of government assistance and policies tailored to the needs of farmers exacerbates the situation.
Dr. Vishnu emphasised the importance of providing substantial financial support to farmers to incentivise them to adapt to climate change. Currently, each farming household receives an average of 17,000 baht in assistance annually, which is too little to motivate farmers to adapt effectively. Given the increasing severity of climate change in the future, the government will likely need to allocate more funds to support the agricultural sector.
