EXIM Thailand targets 4% export growth in 2021
The Export-Import Bank of Thailand (EXIM Thailand) forecasts Thai export growth as high as 4 per cent in 2021, as global trade and economy recovers from a low base of -10 per cent. However, export growth may not return to 2019 levels due to ongoing Covid-19 restrictions around the world, cautioned the bank’s president Pisit Serewiwattana.
The International Monetary Fund projects that less than one-third (60) of 195 economies around the globe will record 2021 GDP higher than or equal to that in 2019. Of those fast-recovering economies, nine are among Thailand’s top 20 export markets – China, Malaysia, Indonesia, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam, South Korea and Taiwan. Major Thai exports to these markets include industrial products like plastic resin, refined oil, chemicals, cosmetics, soap and skincare products, and agricultural goods such as fresh fruits, rubber, sugar, tapioca products and beverages.
Pisit said the key factor propelling the Thai economy and exports in 2021 would be the ability of local businesses to adapt to the new, post-Covid operating conditions. These would be characterised by improving domestic and tourism demand driven by government stimulus.
The latest Thai export figures, for September, show a 3.9 per cent contraction – the lowest in five months. Thai exports in the first nine months of 2020 contracted by 7.3 per cent, lower than those of several peer countries including Japan, South Korea, Singapore and India.
Pisit predicted that Joe Biden’s election as US president would see an easing of the US-China trade war, promotion of clean energy, hikes for corporate and personal income tax, and a rise in the minimum wage. This should encourage more relocation of investment bases from the US.
EXIM Thailand is now aiming to become a “sustainable bank”, with a focus on responsible financial and business management, social and environmental risk management, organisation-wide risk management, and good governance for sustainable banking development. The bank is tasked with supporting exports and investment, particularly in new frontiers, to get Thailand out of the middle-income trap. It is also mandated to boost SMEs’ access to financing and knowledge via the bank’s EXIM Excellence Academy (EXAC). Recently, the bank developed the Thailand Export Readiness Assessment & Knowledge Management (TERAK) system to assess, analyse, process and prepare reports and offer support services to entrepreneurs. It also supports environmentally friendly and renewable energy projects for balanced and sustainable development. In the long term, the bank aims to help Thai entrepreneurs develop higher value-added and innovative products and adapt to the rapidly changing business environment, so that businesses can grow firmly and sustainably with long-term competitive advantages in the global market.
