Winds of change for the Hun dynasty
Cambodia faces shifting power dynamics as the US supports exiled opposition leader Sam Rainsy while China quietly nurtures royalist Norodom Chakravuth.
The aftermath of the five-day conflict and the Cambodia–Thailand border tensions has rippled through the international community, which now largely supports the crackdown on grey-zone Chinese capital in Cambodia.
This has left Prime Minister Hun Manet’s government vulnerable, shaking the foundations of the long-standing Hun Sen regime.
Global analysts are increasingly speculating on a potential political transition in Cambodia should the Hun family’s rule collapse.
Attention is turning to two figures: Sam Rainsy, the exiled opposition leader, and Prince Norodom Chakravuth, head of the royalist FUNCINPEC Party.
Rainsy declares formation of “Independent Cambodian Government” in Paris
On October 22, 2025, Sam Rainsy, former leader of the Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP) and current head of the Cambodia National Resistance Council (CNRC), announced via Facebook that the “Independent Cambodian Government of 23 October” will be formally proclaimed in Paris, France, on 25 October 2025.
The initiative, viewed as the first step towards a government-in-exile, is being hailed by supporters as a “new alternative” for the Cambodian people.
Political groups, associations, and institutions are expected to attend the ceremony, referencing the 1991 Paris Peace Agreement, when the four Khmer factions, FUNCINPEC (Sihanouk), the People’s Revolutionary Party of Kampuchea (Hun Sen), the Khmer People’s National Liberation Front (Son Sann), and the Khmer Rouge (Khieu Samphan), signed a treaty to end decades of civil war.
The opposition plans to frame the anniversary as a reminder of corruption and authoritarianism under the Hun regime.
China grows restless with the Hun family
Meanwhile, reports suggest that Beijing is losing patience with the Hun dynasty and is seeking a new political successor. Sources indicate that Prince Norodom Chakravuth, leader of FUNCINPEC, has emerged as China’s preferred candidate.
Cambodian social-media sentiment appears to support this royalist revival, viewing Chakravuth as a moderate alternative to the Western-aligned Sam Rainsy.
In recent weeks, observers of Cambodian politics have noted a growing discussion around Chakravuth, the eldest son of Prince Norodom Ranariddh, the late former Prime Minister and former FUNCINPEC leader.
China’s recalibration and royal connection
Independence Researcher Songrit Pongern noted that Beijing has begun reassessing its strategy in Cambodia, dissatisfied with Hun Sen’s declining health and Hun Manet’s waning popularity. China reportedly wants to avoid further border disputes with Thailand, which have begun to threaten Chinese investment interests in the region.
In early October 2025, senior Chinese Communist Party officials visited Prince Chakravuth in a move widely interpreted as a strategic signal to Hun Sen that Beijing’s support is no longer exclusive to the Hun family.
More importantly, Chakravuth’s lineage traces back to King Norodom Sihanouk, a historical ally of China during the Cold War, giving him a symbolic legitimacy that Rainsy lacks.
For Beijing, the royalist prince represents a trusted and stable partner, in contrast to Rainsy’s pro-US stance.
A royal moderate rises
Prince Norodom Chakravuth, the eldest son of Prince Norodom Ranariddh, has two siblings, Prince Norodom Sirivudh and Princess Norodom Rattana Devi. Chakravuth was appointed FUNCINPEC leader in early 2022, after his sister Rattana Devi temporarily led the party following their father’s departure to form another political group.
Rattana Devi reportedly brokered reconciliation with Hun Sen, paving the way for her brother to assume leadership. With his modest and conciliatory demeanour, Chakravuth earned Hun Sen’s goodwill.
As a result, in the 2023 election, Hun Sen instructed Cambodia’s National Election Committee to grant FUNCINPEC five parliamentary seats, marking a rare allowance for the royalist camp.
Recently, Chakravuth has been visiting rural communities and encouraging frontline Cambodian troops, signalling his growing ambition and the reemergence of the royalist presence in Cambodian politics.
