How the opposition plans to corner Paetongtarn in no-confidence debate

People’s Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut has submitted a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, with the backing of 166 opposition MPs.

“We believe that all the government’s problems stem from the prime minister herself, as she has failed to control the voice of the administration. The formation of a coalition government that spans political divides means the opposition party sees no need to debate individual ministers, as all the issues fall on the prime minister, who must address them alone,” he said.

The six key areas of criticism of Paetongtarn cited in the censure debate are:

Lack of qualifications and suitability: The motion says Paetongtarn is unfit to hold the executive role of prime minister, as she lacks leadership qualities, maturity, knowledge and determination to govern effectively, which has damaged the nation’s image and diminished national confidence.

Prioritisation of personal interests: The motion says the PM has distanced herself from crucial issues and shown no accountability, placing the interests of her father, family and associates above the public good.

Lack of integrity: She has been accused of exploiting the people and society, failing to implement her campaign promises and supporting those who oppose democracy.

Failure in governance: Her administration has faltered across key areas, including politics, military reform, security, the economy, quality of life, and environmental protection. It has undermined the rule of law and the parliamentary system.

Neglect of corruption: The motion accused the PM of allowing corruption to thrive under her leadership, including policy corruption and governance that benefits her associates and business allies. She has appointed incompetent or dishonest individuals to ministerial positions and other critical roles.

Manipulation by Thaksin: She has allowed her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, to control and manipulate vital decisions, acting as a puppet prime minister with her father as the real leader, thereby avoiding accountability for her actions.

What stands out, however, is the ongoing attempt to link issues related to "Thaksin" to political attacks, particularly by opposition parties that have harboured resentment since being excluded from the government. The Palang Pracharath Party, in particular, has focused on four main issues in the no-confidence debate:

● The Alpine Land case
● Thaksin Shinawatra’s medical treatment on the 14th floor of Police General Hospital
● The entertainment complex and casino issue
● MOU44 – the memorandum of understanding with Cambodia.

It is evident that much of the debate's focus will be on issues that external political movements are preparing to raise to protest against Paetongtarn's government, with some of the information possibly coming from these movements.

The "heaviest weapon" in the debate appears to be the Alpine Land case, where Paetongtarn holds shares, as well as Thaksin's medical treatment on the 14th floor of the Police General Hospital, which is under investigation by the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC), due to its public interest.

On October 1, 2024, Ruangkrai Leekitwattana filed a complaint with the Election Commission (EC), requesting an investigation into Paetongtarn for holding shares in Alpine Golf and Sports Club Co Ltd from the time she was appointed PM (August 16, 2023) until September 3, 2023, to determine if this violated the Constitution’s integrity requirements.

According to data from the Department of Business Development as of April 30, 2023, Alpine had four shareholders: Khunying Pojaman Damapong (Paetongtarn’s mother) with 10% stake, and her three children, each holding 30%. On August 16, 2023, Paetongtarn was elected PM, and it was later discovered that on September 3, 2023, 30% of her shares were transferred to her mother.

Holding 30% of shares in Alpine while being PM violates the Organic Law on Counter Corruption (2018), which limits the shareholding to 5%.

However, some political science and legal experts argue that this issue should focus on intent. Since her appointment as PM was unexpected, the transfer of shares before her appointment may not be necessary to examine.

As for the Alpine land dispute, it is considered that the Shinawatra family’s company was the victim, having legally purchased the land from others. When the court ruled to annul the land, the family only had to comply with the court's decision.

These are the points that are expected to be raised and clarified in the upcoming heated parliamentary debate.

Another issue is Thaksin’s medical treatment on the 14th floor of Police General Hospital, as a result of which he did not serve a single day in prison.

The Constitutional Court has already dismissed all complaints regarding Thaksin’s treatment at the hospital. The only remaining investigation is with the Anti-Corruption Commission, which is looking into alleged misconduct by government officials.

If the debate fails to provide concrete evidence that could put the government on the defensive, the opposition may only be able to reiterate information that has already been reported by the media.

Warong Dechgitvigrom, adviser to the Thai Pakdee Party, emphasised that this debate presents an opportunity for the opposition to target both Thaksin and the prime minister simultaneously. The government cannot claim that mentioning external individuals is prohibited, as Thaksin’s name is included in the motion.

The issues surrounding Thaksin, who is pulling the strings, and Paetongtarn, who is seen as a puppet, are widely known to the public. The key will be whether the opposition remains determined and focused on digging deeper into these details.