July legal battles fuel momentum for political reset

In the parliamentary game, the “Paetongtarn government” now operates without the 69 votes from the Bhumjaithai Party. With only 260–270 MPs remaining — including the original coalition bloc and so-called “cobras” (defectors) sheltered within various parties — the government still holds just over the simple majority threshold of 248 seats by a margin of slightly more than 10 votes.

Though the coalition is operating with a razor-thin margin, Pheu Thai — as the lead party — remains confident that it can maintain stability and push through key legislation pending in Parliament. The upcoming session is expected to revisit several important bills once the House resumes.

However, the real threat may not come from inside the chamber, but rather from outside of it. Political observers are increasingly focused on “off-Parliament warfare” — a set of mounting legal and political challenges that may culminate in a dramatic reshuffling of the political landscape.

At the centre of this storm are the father-daughter duo: Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and her father, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra — the de facto patriarch of the Pheu Thai Party. Both are now the focus of intensifying legal scrutiny, which critics describe as a full-blown judicial offensive.

The month of July is shaping up to be a critical juncture. Several high-stakes legal cases are currently making their way through the system, any one of which could destabilise the government or trigger deeper constitutional repercussions.

On July 1, the Criminal Court will begin hearing witness testimony in a case against Thaksin under Section 112 of the Criminal Code (lèse majesté) and the Computer Crimes Act. The charges stem from a 2015 interview he gave to a news outlet in Seoul, South Korea, in which he allegedly made remarks deemed harmful to national security and the monarchy.

The trial will span seven sessions. The prosecution will present its witnesses on July 1, 2, and 3, while the defence is scheduled to testify on July 15, 16, 22, and 23. A court ruling will follow after both sides conclude their presentations.

Also on July 1, the Constitutional Court will convene in a session closely watched for political ramifications. Judges are expected to consider whether to accept a petition seeking the removal of Prime Minister Paetongtarn. The petition, submitted by Senate President Mongkol Surasajja on behalf of 36 senators, invokes Sections 170(3) and 82 of the Constitution, accusing the prime minister of a serious breach of ethical standards.

The petition cites a leaked audio clip allegedly featuring a conversation between Paetongtarn and Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen, concerning sensitive issues along the Thai-Cambodian border. The claim suggests a potential violation of Section 170(1)(4) in conjunction with Sections 160(4) and (5), which outline the ethical and constitutional standards required of a prime minister.

The petition also requests the court to suspend Paetongtarn from her duties if the case is accepted for review — a move that could send shockwaves through the fragile government coalition.

Simultaneously, a parallel petition on the same issue has been submitted to the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC), accusing Paetongtarn of serious ethical misconduct. On June 23, the NACC’s board unanimously voted to open a preliminary investigation.

Contrary to earlier media reports suggesting a 10-day deadline, the NACC clarified that no formal time frame has been imposed. However, the commission stated it would expedite the process.

These developments are widely seen as part of an escalating power struggle. The opposition bloc — particularly elements from the so-called "blue camp," now in opposition after being ousted from government — is believed to be targeting Prime Minister Paetongtarn in a coordinated political counteroffensive. As the daughter of Thaksin, she is regarded as the political heart of the Shinawatra dynasty.

Observers note that both sides of the divide are politically wounded: the ruling camp is facing legal turbulence and coalition instability, while the opposition must contend with its own internal liabilities, including the Senate vote collusion scandal, which could threaten to unravel the remnants of its influence.

On July 4, the Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions will begin witness hearings in the case concerning the enforcement of Thaksin Shinawatra’s prison sentence. The case relates to the controversial decision to transfer him to the Police General Hospital’s 14th floor for treatment shortly after his return to Thailand.

The court has scheduled hearings for 20 witnesses over six sessions, on July 4, 8, 15, 18, 25, and 30.

Meanwhile, July 8 could be another politically charged day. If not addressed at the July 1 session, the Constitutional Court may take up two major petitions:

The Senate’s request to remove Prime Minister Paetongtarn, stemming from allegations of a serious ethical breach linked to a leaked audio clip involving Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen.

A separate petition filed by activist Natthaporn Toprayoon under Article 49 of the Constitution accuses 12 individuals — including members of the Election Commission, Bhumjaithai Party executives, and outsiders — of conspiring to gain political power through unconstitutional means during the Senate selection process. The claim frames the alleged actions as subversive to Thailand’s constitutional monarchy and democratic order.

The legal front is not the only pressure point. Parallel to these developments, the “Pro-Nation Movement” — a nationalist group known for its staunch opposition to the Shinawatra family — has announced a rally at Victory Monument on June 28. The group aims to rekindle public mobilisation against the government in a campaign overtly designed to fuel momentum for a political “reset.”

Analysts say the group’s strategy is clear: synchronise street-level mobilisation with judicial offensives to build pressure toward a systemic shake-up, or what critics are calling an attempted “set zero” of the political landscape.

All of these events fall within a political environment already marked by fragility and internal disarray. With July shaping up to be a decisive month, Thailand’s political calendar is now tightly packed with legal and political flashpoints that could tip the balance of power.