PM's crisis of confidence deepens as public demands fresh direction

Following a series of challenges—including the economic crisis stemming from global trade tensions, the Thai-Cambodian border conflict, and political instability triggered by the Bhumjaithai Party's withdrawal from the ruling coalition—Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra's leadership has come under mounting scrutiny. Public confidence in both her and the Pheu Thai-led government appears to be eroding.

According to the second quarterly political popularity survey of 2025 conducted by NIDA Poll, under the National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA), support for Paetongtarn has declined sharply.

The survey, carried out between June 19 and 25, 2025, gathered responses from 2,500 individuals aged 18 and above from across all regions, education levels, occupations, and income brackets.

When asked whom they currently support as prime minister, respondents gave the following results:

• Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut (People’s Party): 31.48% – Praised as a bold and articulate young politician with modern, clear ideas and a firm political stance.
• Undecided / No suitable candidate: 19.88%
• Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha: 12.72% – Admired for being straightforward, honest, and action-oriented, with a reputation for maintaining national stability.
• Anutin Charnvirakul (Bhumjaithai Party): 9.64% – Recognised for decisiveness and experience in national administration.
• Paetongtarn Shinawatra (Pheu Thai Party): 9.20% – Seen as earnest and committed despite limited experience, with some respondents expressing a desire to give her the chance to prove her leadership capabilities.

Nonarit Bisonyabut, senior researcher at the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI), said the drop in popularity of Paetongtarn and her government signals a growing public demand for new approaches to national challenges—perhaps even a general election to allow for fresh policy proposals.

“The decline in the prime minister’s popularity reflects an accelerating loss of public confidence in the government and its past performance,” Nonarit said.

Commenting on the latest Cabinet reshuffle and the state of Thai politics, he pointed out that the Paetongtarn administration is now operating on a razor-thin parliamentary majority, forcing it to appease numerous smaller parties. This situation, he said, significantly hampers effective policy implementation and is a major source of dysfunction.

On the economic front, he argued that Thailand faces longstanding structural issues that require urgent reform. These include revamping the education system, upgrading the nation's workforce skills, fostering technological development, and, more immediately, negotiating tariff reductions with the United States.

“All of this requires a stable government capable of delivering continuity, inter-ministerial coordination, and visible outcomes,” he said. “It also requires a democratic system that is transparent and accountable, and a government that enjoys both international legitimacy and broad domestic support to jointly drive economic progress.”

In addition, he stressed the need for the government to strike a careful balance between national security and economic momentum, addressing security threats efficiently without undermining economic stability.

“A fragile coalition government, facing political storms from both within its alliance and from opposition checks and independent agencies—along with risks to national security and growing geopolitical tensions—will find it increasingly difficult to deliver on economic solutions,” Nonarit warned.

Plunging approval reflects public sentiment, says FTI chief

Kriangkrai Thiannukul, chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), said that the sharp drop in approval ratings for Paetongtarn and her Pheu Thai-led government, as revealed in the latest NIDA poll, mirrors growing public frustration over the current state of national affairs.

He said the poll result reflects the mood of society in real time, shaped by mounting domestic and international pressures. The fall in support to fifth place, overtaken by other figures, is understandable given the wave of negative news and rising public opposition.

“NIDA’s poll merely captures public sentiment at a particular moment,” he said. “It reflects the emotional reaction to an influx of news, both domestic and global, and shouldn't come as a surprise.”

Political instability weakens Thailand’s global bargaining power

Kriangkrai expressed concern over Thailand’s weakened internal stability at a time when the country is facing numerous external pressures, with the economy still fragile. He warned that the return of street protests—after a long period of calm—risks damaging the country’s international image.

“Mass protests are not a good sign. They directly undermine Thailand’s leverage in international negotiations. Next week, the government will enter retaliatory tariff talks with the United States, led by the Deputy Prime Minister and Commerce Ministry officials. If political unrest makes headlines, it could affect Thailand’s credibility, weakening its negotiating position,” he said.

He added that such unrest may also play into the hands of Cambodia’s leadership, which could interpret Thailand’s internal divisions as a strategic advantage. “Thailand is, by most measures, in a stronger position. But we risk squandering that strength ourselves.”

Focus on root causes, not symptoms

Kriangkrai urged all sides to remain calm and address the root of Thailand’s issues—political dysfunction. He stressed the urgent need to amend the Constitution, which he described as structurally flawed and unrealistic, leading to constant conflict and instability.

“Everyone must think rationally and act with awareness of timing and impact, especially when the country is under external pressure. Displaying weakness from within only harms us,” he said. He also voiced concern about the potential impact on tourism, with revived protest scenes and public safety concerns likely to further deter visitors.

Political turbulence deters investment

Responding to questions on the Cabinet reshuffle, Kriangkrai said the private sector values political stability and continuity. “Right now, we have neither,” he noted. “Changing key ministers—particularly those involved in trade or investment—disrupts momentum. Even if their successors are equally capable, time is lost rebuilding mutual understanding.”

He added that foreign investors, like Thai businesses, seek a stable environment. During roadshows, changes in key policy figures often prompt hesitation. “Investors may delay decisions while waiting to see whether more changes are on the horizon.”

In conclusion, the FTI chairman emphasised that navigating the economic crisis requires a unified national effort. “This isn’t about blaming any one side. We simply want to sound a wake-up call. Political divisions, if left unchecked, will damage the nation’s image and, ultimately, its economy—and its people.”

Private sector questions Cabinet reshuffle: “Who was it for?”

A source from the private sector has expressed dismay at the recent Cabinet reshuffle, questioning its purpose and direction. “Nothing has changed. There’s no renewed sense of hope,” the source said. “So who was this reshuffle for—and why now?”

They pointed in particular to the Commerce Ministry, which now has a new minister at the helm despite Thailand grappling with a multitude of economic challenges. “The country is facing a storm, yet the appointments do little to boost confidence—either domestically or on the international stage,” the source added.

Private sector figures are growing increasingly concerned about the country’s capacity to navigate its way through the economic downturn. “Now is the time for professionals—people with real expertise—to lead.”

Despite the removal of Pichai Naripthaphan as commerce minister, negotiations with the United States on retaliatory tariffs are still expected to proceed, as Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira remains the head of the negotiation team.

Attention is now turning to a key political timeline: July 1–3, 2025. The Constitutional Court is set to rule on whether Prime Minister Paetongtarn should be suspended from her duties—a decision that could reshape the political landscape.

Business leaders hope new economic ministers can manage crisis

Thanakorn Kasetsuwan, chairman of the Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC), said he assumes the prime minister carefully considered the recent Cabinet reshuffle. However, the private sector had hoped for a more targeted approach, especially in appointing experienced professionals to economic portfolios.

“The business community wants ministers overseeing the economy to come from backgrounds in public administration, private enterprise, or state enterprises,” he said. “There is still hope that the economy can be steered forward, but each ministry must be led by someone with the expertise to chart its direction.”

He stressed that it is the prime minister’s responsibility to appoint capable individuals to key positions. “At this moment, the country’s direction remains unclear, and its international image lacks consistency. Foreign partners are uncertain about whom to engage with. Roles and responsibilities must be clearly defined, especially during a trade war.”

Thanakorn also urged the government to prioritise national infrastructure. “Non-urgent projects can wait. What’s needed now is for all sectors—public, private, and state—to collaborate and get the economy moving again. We need to see growth in manufacturing and a boost in exports.”