SET RISES AMID POSITIVE SENTIMENT WORLDWIDE
Stock markets worldwide are expected to move sideways-up on positive sentiment for investing in risk assets after the US economic recovery gained traction and crude-oil prices faced a limited downside, according to One Asset Management Co. This week will likely find the SET Index rangebound at 1,520-1,565 points, Monthol Junchaya, chief investment officer at One Asset Management, said yesterday.
She cited the boost to the economy late last year from stimulus measures for the move.
The SET Index yesterday surged 1.34 per cent to close at 1,563.58, with trading turnover of more than Bt65.154 billion.
However, when the index nears 1,550, there may be some profit-taking and sales from long-term equity funds (LTFs) approaching their maturities.
Externally, the United States continues on the path of economic recovery and most investors accept the new US president’s administration and policies, which could prompt capital to move from developing countries to developed ones.
Crude-oil prices are expected to see a limit on the downside while major producers will start scaling back their output this year.
Crude is forecast to hover in the range of US$55-$65 per barrel in 2017. The Stock Exchange of Thailand is expected to move sideways on growing bullishness in risk assets and the government’s economic stimulus, which could lead to an upward revision in Thai listed companies’ earnings in the fourth quarter of 2016.
However, estimated sales of about Bt45 billion of LTFs and retirement mutual funds that reach their maturities should be monitored. This is natural for the start of a year.
Other factors that need monitoring this year include Thailand’s election, capital flows on developed countries’ economic improvement and the possibility for cuts of crude production to be implemented after the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-Opec countries agreed to limit crude-oil supply in 2017, Monthol said.
Globlex Securities expects the local bourse to be more volatile than last year on concerns over the estimate of two to three US Federal Reserve interest-rate increases and uncertainty around Britain’s exit from the European Union.
