TNSC forecasts 2026 exports to grow by at least 8-10% despite headwinds

Dhanakorn Kasetrsuwan, chairman of the Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC), said on Friday (July 3, 2026) that Thailand’s exports in May 2026 were worth US$34.333 billion, up 10.6% and expanding for a 23rd consecutive month.

Imports were worth US$40.0445 billion, up 35.1%, resulting in a trade deficit of US$5.7114 billion.

Excluding oil-related products, gold and strategic goods, exports grew by 8.6%.

For the first five months of 2026, exports were worth US$162.0859 billion, up 17% from the same period of the previous year.

Imports were worth US$187.2952 billion, up 35.6%, resulting in a trade deficit of US$25.209 billion.

Exports in the first five months of 2026, excluding oil-related products, gold and strategic goods, grew by 16.7%.

The TNSC has revised its 2026 export projection to growth of at least 8-10%.

Although obstacles remain on all sides in the overall 2026 picture, the early part of the year saw fairly substantial front-loaded imports by major trading partners.

The export situation in 2026 has room to expand

However, the TNSC still sees scope for the 2026 export situation to expand further, but said the situation must be assessed in the third and fourth quarters, particularly the war in the Middle East and the continuity of demand from several major trading partners.

Dhanakorn added that the TNSC was focusing on and monitoring risk factors and volatility that could affect exports, and summarised the positive and supporting factors as follows:

1. Production-cost management. If the government can keep costs from rising, this will be a key positive factor, particularly interest and energy costs, which are likely to decline and help operators withstand depressed market prices.
2. The trend of lower electricity charges. Although the electricity charge (FT) in May had surged by as much as 72%, it is expected that in the third and fourth quarters of this year, electricity charges will fall, and there will be no competition for electricity use from the data centre industry, helping reduce concerns over production costs.
3. Recovery of the Middle East market. Concerns over various situations, which had held back purchasing demand earlier in the year, have begun to ease, allowing orders to return.
4. Promising product groups. These include electrical appliances, particularly air conditioners, refrigerators and freezers, which are expected to grow very well towards the end of the year.
5. Freight-rate advantage. If Thailand can keep freight rates lower than China’s, it will create greater competitive power in exporting goods.

Challenges and cautions

Currency competition.

The currencies of competitors such as Indonesia have weakened much more than Thailand’s, directly affecting competitiveness in automotive, electrical appliance and agricultural products such as palm oil.

However, the US import policy is an important variable that could affect the expansion of Thai exports in the second half of the year.

Legal obstacles, export procedures and complex laws remain issues on which the private sector wants the government to assist so operations can be made easier.