Higher oil prices set to lift Thai living-cost index in fourth quarter

Assoc Prof Aat Pisanwanich of Rangsit University’s Faculty of Economics said on Tuesday (September 22, 2026) that the university had prepared an economic and international trade policy analysis of the Thai Household Cost of Living Index (CLI) for the third quarter of 2026 and the fourth-quarter outlook, titled “The impact of oil prices on Thai living costs”.

Calculations based on 2023 showed that the nationwide household cost-of-living index had risen significantly since the second quarter.

The index stood at 114.4 in the second quarter, up 14.5% from the first quarter and its highest level in three years.

It then fell to 110.9 in the third quarter, down 3.5% from the second, a decline attributed to government subsidies provided through the Thais Help Thais Plus programme from Monday (June 1, 2026) to Wednesday (September 30, 2026).

However, the analysis forecast that the index would edge up to 111.8 in the fourth quarter, 0.9% higher than in the third, as renewed conflict in the Middle East drove up global crude oil prices and domestic retail oil prices.

Domestic retail oil prices rose by an average of 26.6% in the second quarter from the first.

The analysis found that the resulting rise in Thai household expenses averaged seven times the first-quarter level in the second quarter and stood at 6.1 times that level in the third.

It was forecast to reach 6.5 times the first-quarter level in the fourth quarter.

Bangkok and South bear highest burden

Aat said a regional breakdown showed that Bangkok and its surrounding provinces had the country’s highest cost-of-living burden and index, followed by the South.

In the second quarter, the index for Bangkok and its surrounding provinces stood at 115.2, with additional expenses reaching THB10,170.3 per household per quarter, or an average of THB3,390.1 a month.

The South’s index was 114.8, with additional expenses of THB8,960.9 per household per quarter, or THB2,987.0 a month.

In the Northeast, households faced an additional burden of THB7,083.7 per quarter, or THB2,361.2 a month.

Northern households incurred an additional THB7,043.5 per quarter, or THB2,347.8 a month.

Nationwide, the additional burden averaged THB8,362.4 per household per quarter, or THB2,787.5 a month.

Surging oil prices also completely changed Thai spending patterns.

Food and housing had previously been the main expense categories, but travel and transport accounted for the largest share of the additional burden in the second quarter of 2026, at 49.3%, equivalent to THB1,373 a month.

Food and beverages accounted for 23.7%, or THB660 a month, while housing represented 16.8%, or THB468 a month.

Small businesses and salaried workers face heaviest burden

The report found that salaried employees in Bangkok and its surrounding provinces faced the highest additional expenses among occupational groups, at THB19,696.6 per quarter, or THB6,565.5 a month.

They were followed by small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) operators, whose expenses rose by THB13,769.0 per quarter, or THB4,589.7 a month.

In other regions, SME operators and farmers bore the heaviest burden.

SME operators in the South faced an additional THB11,915.4 per quarter, while those in the Central region incurred an extra THB11,812.0 per quarter.

Farmers in the North and Northeast faced additional expenses averaging about THB6,700-6,900 per quarter.

Seven policy measures proposed

Aat outlined seven policy measures to help the government ease the cost-of-living burden:

1. Use the cost-of-living index as a policymaking tool. The government should monitor the index quarterly by region, occupation and income level to ensure wages, welfare and assistance measures reflect the actual burden facing households.
2. Tailor assistance to each region. Measures for Bangkok and its surrounding provinces should focus on travel and fares, while those for the South should reduce freight and energy costs. Assistance in the North and Northeast should help farmers with fuel, machinery, production inputs and the transport of agricultural produce.
3. Reduce food costs at their source. The government should lower the costs of fertiliser, animal feed, energy and logistics while directly connecting farmers with consumers to prevent excessive production and transport costs from being passed on through food prices.
4. Help SMEs cut costs instead of controlling prices. Measures should include low-interest loans, temporary reductions in electricity and transport costs, and support for energy efficiency so that SMEs do not pass the entire burden on through the prices of goods and services.
5. Ease housing and utility expenses. Electricity and cooking-gas assistance should include usage limits and benefit low- and middle-income households without subsidising those consuming unnecessarily high amounts of energy.
6. Provide targeted financial assistance. The amount and form of assistance should take account of income, occupation, region and the proportion of essential spending. Assistance should not be distributed equally nationwide because cost-of-living burdens differ between areas.
7. Monitor the pass-through of costs. Authorities should identify goods whose prices have increased by more than the rise in their actual costs and examine marketing and transport charges, particularly for food, fuel and consumer goods. However, price controls should not be imposed to the extent that they cause shortages.