Goldman Sachs sees Thai first-half 2026 growth revised to 2.9%

Goldman Sachs estimates that Thailand’s economic growth in the first half of 2026 could be revised up to 2.9% from 2.4% following an expansion of manufacturing data coverage. However, the investment bank said in its October 5, 2026, analysis that the stronger figures alone were unlikely to prompt the Bank of Thailand (BOT) to tighten monetary policy.

The Office of Industrial Economics (OIE) expanded Thailand’s Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) on September 30, 2026, adding coverage of laptops, optical transceivers and uninterruptible power supplies and broadening its sample of electronics factories, according to Goldman Sachs.

Goldman Sachs sees possible GDP revisions for 2024 and 2025

Goldman Sachs estimates that Thailand’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2025 could also be revised from 2.4% to 2.9%, matching the potential 0.5-percentage-point increase for the first half of 2026. Growth for 2024 could edge up from 3.0% to 3.1%, the bank estimates.

Goldman Sachs’ calculations for Thailand assume that the newly counted manufacturing output was not already included in published GDP figures. The bank also assumes that a 1% upward adjustment in the MPI would raise real manufacturing GDP by 0.5%, below the roughly 0.7% response suggested by historical regression analysis.

Imported raw materials account for part of Thailand’s manufacturing output, while newly included products may have a different relationship between production and value added, Goldman Sachs said, explaining its more conservative estimate of the MPI revision’s impact on GDP.

The scale and timing of any official revision to Thailand’s GDP remain unconfirmed. The OIE has said it will submit the revised MPI to the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) for use in GDP calculations.

Manufacturing accounts for about one-quarter of Thailand’s economy, and the NESDC’s framework permits revisions to historical GDP data. Goldman Sachs noted that the updated index could therefore affect growth figures for 2024 and 2025 as well as 2026.

US scrutiny adds urgency to Thailand’s factory data review

The United States’ Section 301 investigation into structural excess production capacity made Thailand’s MPI review more urgent, according to Goldman Sachs. The investigation cited Thai capacity utilisation below 60% for two consecutive years as evidence of possible overcapacity.

Thailand’s previous MPI sample had excluded several large, newly established export-oriented factories, Goldman Sachs said. Including those factories was intended to address the mismatch between strong exports and subdued manufacturing output.

The OIE raised its forecast for Thailand’s manufacturing output growth in 2026 from 0–0.5% to 2.75–3.75% following the index revision, according to Goldman Sachs.

Optical transceivers drive most of Thailand’s manufacturing growth

Thailand’s MPI increased by 4.0% year on year during January–August 2026, with optical transceivers contributing 3.3 percentage points, according to Goldman Sachs.

Other electronics products, including semiconductors, integrated circuits, hard disk drives, laptops and printed circuit boards, contributed a combined 0.7 percentage points to Thailand’s MPI growth over the first eight months of 2026, Goldman Sachs said. Industries outside electronics subtracted 0.1 percentage points, indicating broadly stagnant activity beyond the electronics sector.

Goldman Sachs cautioned that the concentration of manufacturing gains made it premature to conclude that Thailand was experiencing a broad-based, technology-driven recovery or to draw monetary-policy conclusions from the stronger figures.

Small firms and energy costs complicate Thailand’s policy outlook

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) remain under financial pressure despite accounting for 70% of employment and 30% of GDP in Thailand, according to Goldman Sachs. Lending to the sector has contracted for 16 consecutive quarters.

Average borrowing costs for Thai SMEs stand at 6.9%, compared with 3% for large companies, Goldman Sachs said.

Thailand’s Oil Fuel Fund deficit of more than 100 billion baht poses another challenge, according to Goldman Sachs. The bank expects the relevant authorities to try to limit further losses, increasing the likelihood that higher energy costs will be passed on to businesses and consumers.

Higher energy costs could push up inflation in Thailand while squeezing business profit margins and household purchasing power, Goldman Sachs warned.

Goldman Sachs considers an upward revision to Thailand’s GDP and fuel-driven inflation alone unlikely to justify tighter monetary policy. The bank expects the BOT to focus on whether inflation spreads beyond energy and persists, particularly while smaller businesses remain under financial strain.

Persistent non-energy inflation in Thailand would strengthen the case for a monetary policy response, Goldman Sachs said.