Thai consumer confidence index falls to 52.1 in September

Thailand’s consumer confidence fell for the first time in four months in September 2026, with the index dropping to 52.1 as widespread flooding and rising living costs weighed on households. The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) released the findings on October 8, 2026, drawing on a nationwide survey of 2,241 respondents.

Thanavath Phonvichai, UTCC president and chief adviser to its Center for Economic and Business Forecasting, attributed the decline mainly to flooding and diesel prices exceeding 40 baht per litre. Thanavath described the setback as temporary, while UTCC maintained its economic growth forecast for 2026 at 2.2–2.5%.

UTCC estimates flood damage at 22–30 billion baht

UTCC estimated that flooding had caused economic damage of approximately 22–30 billion baht, with an impact on gross domestic product (GDP) of around 0.1–0.2%. Most of the losses were concentrated in agriculture, particularly rice-growing areas in the Central region, Thanavath said.

Funding from the Thais Help Thais Plus scheme, government flood-relief budgets and insurance compensation would help support Thailand’s economy and offset the damage, Thanavath said.

Flooding and high living costs weaken household sentiment

UTCC identified three main pressures behind the September decline in consumer confidence, covering flood disruption, rising energy costs and concerns about the uneven economic recovery:

• Widespread flooding: Bangkok, its surrounding provinces, the Central region, the East and the North suffered severe flooding, damaging property and agricultural production while disrupting trade and tourism.
• Higher energy prices and living costs: Retail fuel prices increased, with diesel exceeding 40 baht per litre by the end of September. Higher fuel costs pushed up transport expenses and goods prices.
• Weak purchasing power and an uneven recovery: Consumers viewed Thailand’s recovery as slow and K-shaped, with incomes failing to keep pace with living costs and household debt remaining high. The survey also cited a decline of approximately 36 points in the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index and a slight weakening of the baht to 33.22 per US dollar.

UTCC also identified measures supporting purchasing power, including a two-month extension of the Thais Help Thais Plus scheme, providing an average of 500 baht per month, or 1,000 baht in total. The government’s decision to retain the 7% value-added tax (VAT) rate for another year was another positive factor.

Export growth of 24.3% in August and higher year-on-year prices for major agricultural products, including rice, rubber and oil palm, also helped support confidence, according to UTCC.

Confidence in jobs and major purchases also declines

UTCC’s September survey showed declines in confidence about the economy, employment opportunities and future income, alongside weaker assessments of both current and future conditions. The consumer confidence readings were:

• Overall consumer confidence: 52.1.
• Confidence in the overall economy: 45.1.
• Confidence in job opportunities: 50.1.
• Confidence in future income: 61.2.
• Current consumer confidence: 34.8.
• Future consumer confidence: 60.7.

UTCC’s September spending-suitability and cost-of-living indicators also fell, showing greater caution about major purchases, tourism and business investment:

• Suitability of buying a new car: 55.4.
• Suitability of buying a new home: 32.5.
• Suitability of spending on tourism: 75.8.
• Suitability of investing in a business: 26.6.
• Current cost-of-living conditions: 18.3, reflecting deep concern about household expenses.

Spending recovery from mid-November depends on floods easing

Consumer spending and tourism in Thailand could gradually return to normal from mid-November 2026, provided flooding eases during October and no further negative factors emerge, Thanavath said.

Thailand’s tourism high season and the Vegetarian Festival would help support economic activity, Thanavath said, while investment prospects provided additional grounds for optimism.

Applications for foreign direct investment (FDI) promotion were expected to exceed a cumulative 1 trillion baht over the three years from 2024 to 2026, Thanavath said.

Thailand’s hosting of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) meetings would also help strengthen the country’s international profile as a destination for investment and tourism, Thanavath said.

Businesses and consumers remained positive about Thailand’s prospects over the next six months, particularly expectations of improving employment, Thanavath said. That outlook underpinned UTCC’s decision to retain its 2026 growth forecast at 2.2–2.5%.