Ominous signs from both reds, yellows

National reconciliation is likely to remain an illusory goal while the political divide is being fuelled by the fate of one man: Thaksin.

For whatever reason, certain ministers in the pro-Thaksin camp leaked the confidential debate last week about the draft decree for a pardon to mark His Majesty the King’s 84th birthday. Based on the leaks, media professionals suspected the draft might have been designed to help Thaksin evade punishment.

Mystery deepened, as Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra was curiously absent from the crucial Cabinet meeting.

Senior Democrats, including Sirichoke Sopha and Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, used social media to air their suspicions about the government’s attempt to bend the law.

Intrigue heightened after Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung played coy about the confidential debate. Even though PM Yingluck and Thaksin both said they were not privy to the pardon provisions, speculation spread like wildfire about the push for royal clemency. Thaksin’s opponents, notably Kaewsun Atibhodi, stepped into the fray by attacking the government for putting a fugitive before society.

Last week the yellow shirts, led by the People’s Alliance for Democracy, were finalising preparations to hold a rally to oppose Thaksin’s homecoming. A number of red shirts, including Pheu Thai MP Natthawut Saikua, voiced readiness to pour into the streets to counter their yellow rivals and support the pardon for Thaksin.

With the red and yellow shirts poised to resume their respective street rallies, the former PM defused the tension on Sunday via a letter in which he claimed he would not accept a pardon. He vowed to sacrifice his personal happiness and reaffirmed his support for reconciliation.

Justice Minister Pracha Promnok then explained the decree drafting process and denied that the pardon would help Thaksin. It would be granted to nearly 30,000 convicted inmates but not to any fugitives, he said.

In the past few weeks, the country actually witnessed a dress rehearsal for the red and yellow shirts, foretelling what the two rival camps will do, if and when MPs debate an amnesty for Thaksin. Sadly, political turbulence will persist if rival camps rely on mobilising mobs to outmuscle each another.

Despite unverified reports on the pardon issue, the yellow shirts were already prepared to resume street protests. Should the PAD-led protests commence, the red shirts vowed to mobilise a bigger crowd to force their yellow rivals into submission.

Although the rival camps claim to be fighting for democracy, it is unfortunate that the reds and yellows are prone to fight in the streets instead of relying on talks in the Parliament. It is also worrying that the two camps are waging a political battle over Thaksin and not a worthy cause for the greater good for society.

Some opponents seem bent on total destruction of a man they despised, while supporters opt to see the same person as their knight in shining armour.

The Pheu Thai-led government is obligated to frame the debate on national reconciliation as a push to restore political normalcy and not a pretext to rescue the controversial man at the centre of these problems. In the reconciliation process, amnesty and a charter rewrite will surely be crucial factors. Parliament may look at such matters as early as next year.

If the government fails to steer the debate on reconciliation-related legistation, the red and yellow shirts are likely to dominate the scene and turn fence-mending efforts into the rivalry over the fate of Thaksin.

This week, protests were called off after the government promised the pardon would not apply to Thaksin. But what will happen when the government presents the larger issue of an amnesty for all players in the political turbulence, including Thaksin?