Thaksin's retreat may cut conflict

An approaching storm is being thwarted simply because the government has switched into reverse gear in order to avoid confronting its opponents over controversies like charter change and lese majeste law.
And clouds should dissipate due to an unspoken message from fugitive former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra to delay his homecoming.
Although the government leaders did not spell out a change of plan, it is clear that Thaksin has no longer set a deadline for his amnesty. He appears to have conceded to two things – that he could not be granted a pardon by this year and that he could not expect his sister and Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra to engineer his homecoming, due to the fact it would be a conflict of interest.
Thaksin should be well aware that any hasty push for an amnesty would only inflame the political situation, hence his decision to bide for time.
He appears to have also seen that Yingluck is in no position to bring about an amnesty for him. If and when an opportunity arises to untangle his legal issues, he will have to make a tough decision on whether to keep his sister in the position of prime minister, or to replace her with someone who can resolve the amnesty issue.
Fortunately, the country should see relative calm before Thaksin will have to choose between his sister and a new prime ministerial candidate to pave way for his amnesty.
With Thaksin remaining a puppeteer, pulling strings from afar for at least another year, the government can afford to put the charter rewrite on hold.
The perceived urgency to amend the charter can be attributed to the rush to pardon Thaksin. The repeal of the charter’s Article 309, which condones the coup-sanctioned activities, is seen as key to rescuing him from his conviction.
There is no reason to speed up the amendment process if Thaksin has put off plans to come home.
The red shirts are spearheading a campaign to solicit the support of 50,000 to 200,000 voters in order to sponsor a motion for a rewrite of the charter. But this is to showcase their movement rather than a serious move to sideline the government. It will take months or years to verify the reds’ signatures.
The charter change will be activated if and when the government deems it necessary. The road map for the new charter will hinge on three key reports compiled by the Truth for Reconciliation Commission of Thailand, the Independent National Rule of Law Commission and the House Committee on reconciliation.
The three reports should be completed later this year. So the earliest date that a redraft of the charter might commence at year-end.
Yingluck’s job is safe for now. Thaksin is unlikely to rock the boat before he can fully assess his options for amnesty.
Three contenders to replace Yingluck are Chaturon Chaisang, Surakiart Sathirathai and Somkid Jatusripitak. But Yingluck’s leadership will prevail for at least a year or two. Thaksin seems to face certain drawbacks regardless of what he decides. Chaturon is the best qualified candidate, who could engineer an amnesty, but is seen as his own man. Whereas Surakiart and Somkid are regarded as aloof to the red shirts, because of their close ties with the royalist camp.
From now to April, the Yingluck government will face some petty issues, none of which will trigger a downfall. The most critical is likely to come from pressure to bring the red shirts, particularly Pheu Thai MP Jatuporn Promphan, into the Cabinet line-up.