Our forecasting system's slower than a PC, says Met Dept
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The accuracy of weather forecasts by the Meteorological Department is only around 80 per cent because of its obsolete computer systems, deputy director-general Somchai Baimuang said yesterday.
The department’s system – now working slower than a modern personal computer – would need a Bt2 billion budget to be replaced.
“Our systems might be little better than today's PCs, in terms of systems' stability. A forecast could be accurate for a seven-day period, but in a period longer than that, we can deliver only speculation," he added.
The longer the period of forecasting the less accurate the results, he said. "The daily forecast's accuracy was around 75-79 per cent, while the accuracy for a seven day period was down to 60 per cent. The most accurate forecasting is for a three hours' or six hours' period, at around 90 per cent," he added.
In terms of range, the department's computers could forecast weather at only provincial level, but could not do so at district or village level. "The department has been capable of forecasting in a seven day period and at the provincial level. This is our limitation which we live with, as we lack newer computers," he added.
"The accuracy of any forecasts done in advance for a period longer than 10 days is very low. A new system would help with forecasting accuracy over a period longer than 10 days, or even up to a year," Somchai said.
In a new system, five components would be replaced or put in place – beginning with a measuring mechanism comprising subordinate tools in a national network. "Our current system cannot yet fully link the entire network," he said.
The second would be a better processing mechanism to analyse data from the networks outside Bangkok, or from abroad. "We need a supercomputer to do this job, which would make forecasts error-free, or at least better than our existing mechanism," he said.
"An improved processing mechanism would enable forecasts down to district, tambon and village level, in a period longer than those we are capable of, with greater accuracy. This is what we need," he added. Personnel development is also needed to improve staff performances to cope with advanced technology.
If entirely improved, the five new components could ensure hourly forecasts and all types of weather reports at all channels available, including a proposed television channel run by the Meterological Department, instead of only on its website, which is not accessible to the entire audience or population, he said.
A budget request made by the department has regularly been ignored or under-served, he said. "A budget next year for Bt900 million has been earmarked for salaries and routine spending, leaving us a Bt200 million to spend or invest on new projects or machines."
The acting director of Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency, Anond Sanitwong na Ayutthaya, said a database should be processed and made available under a uniform format, or changed into an entirely new format to standardise information for communal use.
