Yongyuth’s exit is unstoppable. What the government can do, under the circumstances, is to pre-empt political repercussions and to ensure a graceful farewell.
Last week, the National Anti-Corruption Commission officially notified the government of its ruling that Yongyuth, when he was deputy permanent secretary of the Interior Ministry in 2002, committed a gross disciplinary violation in connection with the Alpine land case.
The NACC voted on the Yongyuth case in June before vetting and releasing the official copy of the decision.
The government has 30 days to mete out punishment. Although the deadline can be extended within reason, it would be unimaginable as well as illegal to fail to comply with the ruling.
The offence involving Yongyuth is punishable by either a dismissal or an expulsion from the civil service.
Under civil-service regulations, dismissal means a disciplinary offender might still be entitled to the retirement package. Expulsion means no retirement benefits.
In the Yongyuth case, the key issue is the implication for his political office.
Under the Constitution, a dismissed or expelled civil servant is not qualified to hold a seat in the House of Representatives or to join the Cabinet line-up.
Based on relevant laws, the Interior Ministry’s Civil Service Sub-Commission must mete out disciplinary punishment by firing Yongyuth retroactively.
Although the government could follow the precedent of firing an offender as per the NACC decision before invoking another law to clear the subject’s name for reinstatement, that process would take months.
Under such a procedure, Yongyuth could salvage his retirement benefits and expunge his disciplinary record but would not be able to remain in the Cabinet.
The government has to choose between two realistic options - either shuffle the Cabinet to ease him out or let him lose his job after facing disciplinary punishment.
Should the Cabinet reshuffle be chosen, the government has no more than a few months to save Yongyuth’s face.
The government and Yongyuth both will have to make some difficult decisions at this juncture.
For Yongyuth, it is clear he wants his exit to happen before facing disciplinary punishment.
In the past couple of weeks, he involved Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra in making several key decisions under his purview. This is a clear sign his exit is pending.
For the government, it will not be easy to name Yongyuth’s successor. He is well liked by all sides, including the Democrats. He remains fiercely loyal to Yingluck and her brother Thaksin.
More important, since the government was formed in 2011, he has been designated a caretaker should an “accident” happen to Yingluck.
The exit of Yongyuth means Thaksin and Yingluck will have to devise a new formula for power sharing in the Cabinet.
Government insiders say Yingluck wants to promote Kittiratt Na-Ranong as her senior-most deputy. But Thaksin seems reluctant to give his blessing.
He is, in turn, considering promotion of veterans from the disbanded Thai Rak Thai party, such as Sudarat Keyuraphan. The unanswered question is the working chemistry between Yingluck and Sudarat.
The next tough issue is picking the right person for the Interior portfolio. The name of red-shirt leader Jatuporn Promphan keeps coming up as a candidate for the job.
But will Yingluck agree to bring this political lightning rod into her government?
A wrong choice made by Yingluck or Thaksin will yield dire consequences for the government. At this juncture, the Democrats are just extras on the political landscape.