Premature deep South talks may soon be on life support
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The peace dialogue aimed at quelling violence in the deep South is apparently in danger of an untimely death caused by its premature birth.
Two leaders, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak and former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, made haste to bring about the dialogue. The pair tried to secure peace at their whim, regardless of whether conditions were ripe for striking a deal.
From Najib’s point of view, the violence in Thailand’s southern border provinces had the potential to spread into Malaysia.
The Malaysian security risk is minimal but real because should the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN) succeed in establishing its goal of a Patani State, it would claim part of Malaysia’s Kelantan state.
Najib is not an altruistic neighbour who wishes nothing but the best for Thailand. He wants to broker a Thai peace that serves Malaysia’s security interests.
Thaksin sees himself an invincible leader with one blemish on his record – after years of remaining dormant, the southern insurgency resumed under his watch in 2004.
He has no one but himself to blame for triggering and fuelling the violence. To his credit, he did not just admit making a series of mistakes but tried to rectify them as well.
Before and after he was ousted from power in 2006, he mobilised the best and the brightest from around the world to help him map out a winning formula to counter the insurgency.
The problem was that he was looking for a quick fix while the strife-torn region needed a long-term solution.
The situation stabilised after 2009 but was not resolved. Soldiers and civilian officials managed to rethink their strategies.
Even though the Democrats and their Pheu Thai rivals may claim otherwise, the southern border provinces are jointly administered by soldiers and civilian officials, while politicians remain on the sidelines.
Since the government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra came to power in 2011, Thaksin has again turned his full attention on the South. He is determined to ensure he stamps his legacy in the region.
This time around, Thaksin and Najib face a new set of circumstances, which make them natural allies.
Since last year, Najib has planned for a snap election, although he worries about his rival Anwar Ibrahim making further inroads in northern Malaysia. He obviously wants to divert Anwar’s political trajectory away from winning power.
Since Anwar is seen as close to Thailand’s Democrats, Najib has opted to drift towards Thaksin, because northern Malaysia is closely linked to Thailand’s South, seen as the stronghold of Thailand’s main opposition party.
Last week Anwar curiously took time off from his campaign trial for the May 5 poll to meet ranking Democrats in Hat Yai.
Thaksin has likely been courting Najib because he sees the Malaysian prime minister as his last hope for reaching out to and reasoning with the insurgents.
At Najib’s suggestion last year, he met with a number of BRN leaders in Kuala Lumpur. Najib and he subsequently hatched the idea of a dialogue to address grievances in the strife-torn region.
Thaksin hand-picked National Security Council secretary-general Paradorn Patanathabutr to handle the dialogue. This happened without consulting with and forming a consensus among security agencies, including the armed forces.
Meanwhile, Najib designated his intelligence chief from the so-called Research Division of the Prime Minister’s Department to organise the dialogue and screen BRN leaders seen as pro-Malaysia.
The majority of Malaysia’s security establishment had no involvement in Najib’s mediation efforts to bring about the dialogue.
It is to be hoped that Najib and Thaksin know what they are doing. If not, the turmoil in the South could worsen.
