Amnesty fallout: govt unafraid

Buoyed by its successful crack-down on the anti-government Pitak Siam group last year and firmly backed by police, the Yingluck government is confident it can manage any possible political disturbances that might arise from its decision to push an amnesty bill through Parliament.

What has made the Yingluck government so adamant and bold to get on with the hottest political issue – an amnesty bill aimed at pardons for those imprisoned over political riots, and possibly helping ex-pm Thaksin Shinawatra return home – even though it risks rocking its stability in a volatile scenario?

The government has evaluated the manpower, resources and potential of its opponents and believed “police” would be able to put them under control, a source from the government camp said.

“We have estimated that the number of anti-government protesters would be just a little more than 10,000 people – while the Pitak Siam group mobilized 20,000 in November last year. Police are also confident of their capability and experience in handling the protesters,” he said.

Government strategists also believe protest leaders would not be able to mobilise a mega rally because anti-government protesters have split into different groups, upholding different ideologies such as the white maskers, who have vowed to resort to only peaceful protests.

The government believes Worachai’s bill is the best way out to bring about national reconciliation because the gist of the bill is to pardon every cause and every political colour, except those of “protest leaders”. 

Opponents of Worachai’s bill however opposed “the generalisation approach” of the bill which pardons all, and are skeptical that the government may resort to an underhand tactic to incorporate reconciliation bills that benefit Thaksin and his supporters.

The reconciliation bill in question, for instance,is that of Labour Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung, which pardons everybody, every case before the September 2006 coup and after, including cases involving Thaksin.

The Pheu Thai Party’s Kokaew Pikulthong, a leader of the red shirts, insisted that Thaksin had nothing to gain from Worachai’s bill. 

In the past few days, Royal Thai Police under Police General Adul Saengsingkaew have rehearsed measures to keep law and order in case of any protest. 

Bangkok Police Chief Pol Lt- General Camronwit Toopgrajank, who has come under fire for having Thaksin pin his insignia of rank shortly after his promotion last year, is a leader of the main troop for the mission. 

“Police will not resort to force. But if protesters are going to block roads or lay siege to Parliament, that is not a democratic method. If there is any violence, it [will not be] caused by police. We will not allow police to carry weapons. They have only shields for self-defence,” Camronwit said.

The political temperature in the next four months is expected to rise and the question is – will the government be able to withstand the political heat?

 

 

 

Contentious issues

 

The new Parliament session convening on Thursday is expected to confront contentious issues during its run to November.

_ Amnesty bill proposed by the Pheu Thai MP for Samut Prakan, Worachai Hema, which has been raised to lead the August 7 agenda.

_ Bt2.5 trillion budget bill for fiscal 2014, which is set for deliberation from August 14-15

_ Bt2 trillion loan bill for infrastructure projects, which will be up for its second reading

_ Three charter amendment bills covering four clauses – election of all 200 senators, dropping the ban from politics and penalties for party executives and dissolution of a party in case of election fraud by a party executive, requiring petitions related to the overthrowing of the government to be submitted for prior consideration by the Attorney General, and limiting requirements for parliamentary approval of international agreements.

_ National reconciliation bills 

_ No-confidence debate