Loan debate will be tough, but govt holds all the cards

How important is this bill to the government? The answer is evident in the fact that the mobile Cabinet meeting scheduled for tomorrow in Lop Buri has been cancelled. The cancellation is aimed at allowing the PM and other Cabinet members, as well as state agencies involved, to prepare information for use in the House during the debate.
A heated debate can be expected. Even more interesting will be the political games to be employed by both the government and the opposition inside and outside the meeting chamber.
The fight inside the chamber will be no different from what we saw last week during the debate on constitutional amendment regarding senators. Opposition MPs will try to delay the debate for as long as possible in order to put pressure on the government. Several dozen opposition MPs will seek to debate every clause and insist they all be allowed to take the floor, and opposition whips will refuse to meet coalition whips to discuss the debate’s timeframe.
The government side has made it clear since the debate on constitutional amendment that it wants the debate on this bill to be completed as soon as possible. In response to the opposition’s delaying tactics, coalition MPs often successfully sought an abrupt end to the debate, thanks to their majority control in the House. This response tactic, however, led to much chaos during the parliamentary debates in recent weeks.
The opposition has threatened to seek a Constitutional Court opinion on whether the government’s bill violates the charter, particularly provisions requiring fiscal discipline. Many legal experts have agreed that the government is unlikely to overcome this legal obstacle.
However, if the government manages to clear this tough hurdle, it will be able to win the hearts of many people who will benefit from those projects. Politicians in power may also benefit from the projects, judging from the many leaks in the proposed law.
The government appears determined to push for this bill’s passage through Parliament as soon as possible, as in the case for constitutional amendment. If things continue as planned, we may see the House of Representatives dissolved late this year. The government appears to have things under its control now.
However, if things do not turn out as expected – such as the constitutional amendment running into a snag, the Bt2-trillion loan bill failing to get the stamp of approval from the Constitutional Court, or the anti-government movement growing out of hand – the government could still use a House dissolution as its weapon. It seems confident the opposition Democrat Party is unlikely to beat the ruling Pheu Thai Party in the next general election.
So it is not surprising that the government does not seem to care much about negative political developments. If things get out of hand, they can always use a House dissolution as a “circuit breaker” and call a new election in order to win a fresh political mandate.
Nobody can tell for sure when the next House dissolution will happen. What is certain is that this government is unlikely to complete its four-year term. However, it will likely be the government that cuts short its term, for its own benefit. The government will not dissolve the House because it is forced to do so.