Junta may drop cases against politicians for sake of peace

These cases are some of the most highly anticipated issues since General Prayut Chan-o-cha staged the coup on May 22 because, from a political perspective, they will demonstrate the junta’s capacity for flexibility and compromise in negotiating peace and reconciliation with key adversaries.

Indeed, the impeachment cases are more political than a fight for justice and or a battle of legal technicalities. 

This was evident from the closed-door meeting when NLA members debated whether they should accept the impeachment case of Somsak and Nikom back in October last year. 

The only reason for that was, in the context of national interest, there were fears of adverse reactions from people if they had heard of the sensitive topics that were discussed. 

NLA members had their “role” to play – those who want to argue for or against accepting the impeachment cases may be hesitant to do so, fearing criticism. 

The purpose of the closed-door meeting was to allow members to “speak their hearts” on a highly politicised issue without fear of scrutiny. 

However, if it were to be merely a discussion about legal technicalities, there would have been no need for such a closed-door meeting.

And since these impeachment cases can be classified as highly political, there is strong reason to believe that Yingluck, Somsak, Nikom, plus the 38 other former senators will be let off the hook. 

This is mainly because the junta has put high emphasis on security – by their decision to maintain martial law, their policy to “delay” local administration elections, and their refusal to confirm whether a referendum will be held on the new constitution, saying it depends on the security situation at the time. All of these actions came at great political cost, but the military was willing to do this to ensure security and stability. 

Any decision by the NLA to impeach the former premier and her allies would have shaken the apparent peace in Thai society, as Pheu Thai and Thaksin sympathisers have questioned and rejected the legitimacy of the junta’s appointed legislators from the start. 

Deputy NLA President Peerasak Porchit came out yesterday to assure the public that each NLA member was free to vote as per their conscience, though people find this difficult to believe. 

And, it is easy to assume that certain groups of people will be infuriated if the NLA decides to impeach some of their leaders.

Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva noted recently that the impeachment cases in the NLA and the economy are two key matters that could become obstacles in the Prayut administration’s work and progress.

Red-shirt leader Weng Tojirakarn said yesterday that if the NLA members decide they should vote in favour of impeachment, the red shirts are unlikely to organise movements because of martial law. However, he was sure that one or more decisions to impeach these people would fuel anger that could erupt in the foreseeable future.

Because of the political sensitivity and the potential consequences that could threaten security and stability, the impeachment cases have become political issues, rather than legal battles to distinguish between guilt and innocence. 

The junta has the capacity not to go ahead with these impeachment cases in exchange for peace and order, as if to say: “Off you go. But stay quiet and let us get on with our jobs.”