'Crisis' non-elected PM could come sooner than expected

However, judging from some relevant factors, it is likely that an outsider prime minister may come earlier than expected – perhaps as soon as the first general election held under the new constitution.
The constitution will have clauses that interconnect, he said, and the clauses regarding the prime minister will certainly link with those about elections, or about those empowered to select the prime minister or to nominate the government head for royal endorsement. There will certainly be connections with clauses about the appointment of other Cabinet members and the use of authority as the government.
The constitution drafters plan to base Thailand’s new electoral system on the German model. The highest number of MPs from each contesting political party will be based on the result of the party-list election of proportional representation for the entire country.
That means any party that wins more than the maximum number of MP seats from constituencies is eligible for the proportional-representation system, and will have no MPs from the party-list election. This is aimed at allowing the actual number of MPs and their political parties to reflect the voter support better.
So there is no guarantee that candidates in the party-list system will get elected to Parliament.
Political parties will win MPs from the party-list system when the number of winning MPs from the constituency system is lower than the maximum number of MPs that are eligible from the party-list election of proportional representation for the entire country.
Because of the uncertainties, it is likely that the leaders of many political parties and prime-ministerial candidates will opt not to contest the future elections as party-list candidates as they will run the risk of failing to get elected. They may instead opt to contest in the constituency system.
However, if the new constitution states that the prime minister and Cabinet members cannot come from the ranks of MPs, any MP who is elected to become prime minister will have to resign as an MP. This will result in a by-election and the PM’s party that has just won the general election may not win again. If that is the case, the government will have one fewer MP.
Also, many Cabinet members in the future will not be MPs, as the ruling party will try to avoid by-elections and the chance of failing to get elected.
This electoral system will prevent domination by any single political party in the House of Representatives. That means every MP the ruling party has will be vital to the government’s stability.
Major political parties may have to consider carefully whether they are willing to field their PM candidates in the general election at all and, if they do, whether their PM candidates should contest in the constituency or in the party-list system.
If the large political parties opt not to field their prime-ministerial candidates and they end up having to contest in the House for the top seat, it is likely there will be severe disagreement.
And that will bring about a crisis that can only be solved by bringing in an outsider to act as prime minister. The need may come earlier than expected.