How long will junta administer bitter pill of martial law?

The situation has stayed peaceful since then without noisy protests and political fights in public, unlike the violent situations during the past 10 years that saw serious political conflict leading to fighting and demonstrations every year.

Before the latest coup, the situation seemed to be getting worse. People were fed up of the political conflict. As a result, although many disagreed with the coup, they did not campaign strongly against the NCPO.

The tool that the NCPO has been using effectively to contain political disturbance is martial law. This legal instrument provides sweeping powers to military officers to contain or prevent political moves or campaigns. The military officers also have full authority to restrict freedom of expression or even stop any action deemed as a harbinger of unrest.

This strong medicine has so far been effective in keeping the situation under control, unlike what happened after the 2006 coup. Just three or four months after that coup, signs of violence emerged, including the bomb attacks in Bangkok on New Year’s eve. Then red-shirt supporters started to rally from the middle of 2007 until they formed the powerful United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship.

This time, it’s eight months since the coup and there has been no sign of violence and the situation remains peaceful.

This kind of situation might mislead many into believing that political conflict has ceased in Thai society. Actually, that is not the case.

Political disharmony still exists – but it is suppressed under the weight of martial law. And it seems the magnitude of the conflict is growing because there is no channel for it to be vented out.

Many believe the potential for conflict still exists and it could even escalate because polarised reactions have emerged immediately after former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra was impeached by the National Legislative Assembly. Both sides came out to express their stands, the most fierce since the coup.

The impeachment underlined how polarised these conflicts of political feeling are. One side expressed its joy and ridiculed the other as it protested in anger and cried foul that it had been repeatedly persecuted. The feelings were bitterly vented through various channels because holding of press conferences is not permitted.

Although neither party has emerged to quarrel publicly, nobody knows how long the peaceful situation will continue before both sides shape up to fight. As a result, the NCPO, which needs to win more public support, will continue to use martial law to suppress the expression of conflicting opinions.

The question is how long the NCPO will administer this strong medicine. Will it need to increase the dose because – if martial law remains in force much longer – dissatisfied people will grow more angry and try to vent their frustrations? And if the NCPO has to increase the dose, will the public be happy with this enforcement of martial law?

If public discontent escalates to the point where conflicts that lie under the carpet blow up, will the NCPO be able to control the situation? Will the public still tolerate the NCPO’s governance if its main selling point, of maintaining peace, is gone?

It is believed that the NCPO leaders understand these points. But they can only try to maintain the situation as they wait for the next election to be held, or until the NCPO reaches its reform goals.

For now, it seems the NCPO leaders have become addicted to martial law and are unlikely to relax on this measure in the near future.