Canal 'an option if geopolitical factors change'

DR PANITAN Wattanayagorn, a top adviser of Deputy PM and Defence Minister General Prawit Wongsuwan, appears to have adopted a cautious stance on the Kra Canal, suggesting that economic benefits that may result from a sea lane across southern Thailand to link the Indian and Pacific oceans remains a big challenge.
Yet, the geo-political expert believes the power play among big countries has intensified in recent years, marked by Beijing’s strong position in the South China Sea and evidenced by the latest reclamation of around 2,000 acres of land over the past 18 months in the Spratly islands.
Meantime, the US has stepped up its countervailing power in this region by speaking out publicly against China’s plan for the disputed islands and sending surveillance planes into the area – also claimed by Southeast Asian countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam.
Hence, any attempt to revive the Kra Canal scheme should be put into perspective by looking at its economic benefits and its regional security implications.
From China’s point of view, it would prefer to a shorter alternate route to reach the Indian Ocean rather than relying on the sole present route through the Strait of Malacca, as it attempts to expand its naval power in this region to match its economic clout on the global stage.
In response to this scenario, Panitan said, Thailand needed to adopt a great balancing act by engaging both the US and China.
“The latest example is that we’ve agreed to the US request to use Phuket as a base for helping migrants stranded at sea,” he said.
“In the wake of the May 2014 coup, China appears to have got the edge [over the US] when dealing with Thailand. On the other hand, the US is compelled by its policy to scale down its diplomatic relations with Thailand following the coup,” he said.
“So there are some restrictions in the current stage of the Thai-US relationship. Yet, the US may increase bilateral cooperation in the military area with Thailand. Even Singapore has adjusted its relationship with big powers by increasing cooperation with Russia in addition to its strong relations with the US.”
Regarding the Kra Canal’s economic benefit, the competitive advantage will still be a major challenge as long as the Strait of Malacca in Singapore is not fully
 used and Singapore remains a highly competitive port of call in terms of efficiency, speed, and other factors.
Nevertheless, the Kra Canal should be seen from a longer-term perspective as an alternate short-cut sea route that may supplement the existing route, especially in the event of major accidents.
“It may be economically worthwhile in the long term as trade and investment continue to grow in China, India, Asean and other parts of East Asia vis-a-vis the rest of world,” Panitan said.
“For oil shipments, it’s also in the interest of China to have an alternative transport route from the Middle East to China as most of China’s oil imports are currently shipped via the Strait of Malacca.”
Last but not least, the current rivalry between China and the US in this part of the world is increasingly reminiscent of the colonial time, when in 1882 both England and France were competing to cut the Kra Canal and the Siamese government at the time had to walk a diplomatic tightrope, according to Dr Sumet Jumsai, a renowned architect who is well-versed in Thai history.
Sumet cited a book, “Prince Prisdang’s Files on His Diplomatic Activities in Europe from 1880-1886”, which says: “Both England and France showed great interest in cutting the canal through the Isthmus of Kra to shorten the sea route to the Far East and save shipping expenses.
“M Grehan, the Thai consul in Paris, came out openly in his letters to the Thai government in support the French endeavours. Understand-ably, he accused Mason, the Thai consul in London, of involvement with an English firm.”
The book adds: “King Chula-longkorn however had to act diplomatically and prudently when the two big powers, England and France, were concerned in the Kra Canal.
“He could not favour one in case he might injure the pride of the other.”

- This is the final part of a series on the Kra Canal.