Don't expect big changes from the Cabinet reshuffle

Recently, reports have been heard about there being a conflict between the government’s economics team and the Cabinet. Apparently, the working style of the team’s boss – Deputy Prime Minister MR Pridiyathorn Devakula – is incompatible with that of many other Cabinet members. 

One of the key complaints was the slow disbursement of budgets, and sometimes the complaints were so loud that the prime minister had to step in and take action. Also, some were unhappy that that the screening committee chaired by Pridiyathorn had made disappointing decisions about their proposed projects.

Pridiyathorn, meanwhile, has also felt slighted as the premier rarely paid heed to his advice, according to some sources from the team. Apparently, Prayut has been favouring suggestions from Somkid Jatusripitak, who is working as a key economic adviser to the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO).

There’s also the problem of the economy hitting a slump, which is why the government needs someone who can help boost confidence in its economic stimulus measures – another major reason for replacing the economics ministers. And so far, Somkid appears to be one of the leading candidates. 

The post-coup interim charter was amended recently to make way for banned politicians to become Cabinet members, and Somkid was one of the Thai Rak Thai executives banned from politics for five years. The now-defunct party was disbanded by court for electoral fraud.

Meanwhile, the other members of the Cabinet that might be replaced are Finance Minister Sommai Phasee and Agriculture Minister Peetipong Phuengbun na Ayutthaya. 

However, there is still a big question mark against Commerce Minister General Chatchai Sarikalya’s name. 

Surely, Somkid, who is expected to lead the economics team, would want someone he trusts to be in charge of the Commerce Ministry.

Yet, Prayut recently defended Chatchai even though opinion polls showed that he should be among the first to be removed from the Cabinet. The PM said the commerce minister, despite his background in the military, was working hard to boost the export market.

If there is a Cabinet shake-up, it could bring some changes in ministerial policies, though the government’s focus will remain largely unchanged for as long as Prayut is at the helm. 

The PM still dominates his government’s decision-making process and appeared to be slightly miffed recently when asked if appointing Somkid would help boost confidence in his administration. 

“It’s me who is the leader. I am the person in charge,” he retorted.

With this attitude, there is little hope that the upcoming Cabinet reshuffle will bring any considerable benefits. Normally, changes in the Cabinet line-up are aimed at restoring confidence in the government, just like reviving an organisation’s image. However, this time it looks like Prayut doesn’t expect the Cabinet shake-up to have any positive psychological impact.