WEDNESDAY, April 24, 2024
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Need for more transparency on reserves

Need for more transparency on reserves

Critics of the government routinely exploit the notion of the country being broke, the intention being to discredit the government whenever treasury reserves fall.

Thais have been arguing over the decline in the reserves, even those in the non-finance sector, which led to confusion over just what the drop signified. 
A sense of panic was easily created after treasury reserves fell to Bt75 billion at the end of December, down from Bt441.3 billion at the end of last September. The big question was where had that Bt366 billion gone.
What concerns citizens is whether the government is “going broke” and what consequences that eventuality might have on the economy.
Since the budgetary process and public-finance administration represent complicated matters for the average layperson, the basic question is whether the government is indeed going broke.
To try and explain, experts and academics have likened treasury reserves to cash kept in the drawer at home, ready to be spent on necessities. Sometimes the outflow is greater than the inflow, leading to a fall in reserves. But when there is still a need to spend, we are reassured, money can always be borrowed to fill the shortfall in reserves. 
The past 10 years have seen treasury reserves grow steadily, with the exception of the initial post-coup period in 2014. The year previous, Thailand had enjoyed its highest-ever level of reserves, at Bt605 billion. 
The dramatic decline since then tends to be overstated, with critics calling current levels the lowest record in 10 years. In fact, levels were lower under earlier governments, especially in the first quarter of each fiscal budget year. 
In 2004, under Thaksin Shinawatra, treasury reserves fell to about Bt40 billion. His administration came under fierce attack on its fiscal discipline and lack of transparency. Some suggested his government had misused public taxes to proffer populist programmes in order to garner support for the coming election.
Five years later the Abhisit Vejjajiva government was under fire when treasury reserves dipped to Bt52 billion. That plunge, however, came at the end of the fiscal first quarter, when cash flow is normally tight due rapid disbursements ahead of the annual tax influx.
Governments typically try and maintain treasury reserves as high as possible to make sure that upcoming expenditures are covered, and that outlay usually increases after the fiscal year-end. Moreover, if the government earmarks extra cash, treasury reserves are rapidly depleted. 
The National Legislative Assembly recently approved an additional budget of Bt190 billion for fiscal 2017. This is in addition to a swell of “economic stimulus” packages, along with disbursements that can be implemented faster through infrastructure projects.
This is possibly why current treasury reserves have been depleted so quickly. The average citizen doesn’t care about the details of budgetary control, however.
Even though many economists have pointed out that the falling reserves do not represent a decline in the country’s “wealth”, few Thais are listening.
Even though our international reserves stand at a strong US$200 billion and Thailand had the second-best export growth in Southeast Asia in 2016 (and eight-best in the world, most Thais are still worried that the economy doesn’t appear to be recovering. 
Discussions in the past focused on what level of treasury reserves would be appropriate and whether, if the level is high, they money should be put to use rather than being held in abeyance.
To quell concerns, the government should elaborate more and better as to what expenditures are coming out of treasury reserves. The discussion henceforth shouldn’t be about whether reserves are high or low, but whether the government’s budgetary controls are efficient and transparent enough. 

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