Tisco predicts SET will see more activity in first quarter
Tisco Bank forecast on Wednesday (January 8) that the SET Index will reach 1,620 points in the first quarter of 2020, up from 1,562 in the previous quarter, while the conflict between the US and Iran will affect the crude oil price and global funds flow in this quarter and the next.
Tisco also forecast that the SSF (Super Savings Fund) effects will boost the sales of unsold long-term mutual funds by around 20 per cent, or Bt40 billion. The value of unsold LTF was approximately Bt200 billion, out of the total Bt300 billion LTF.
Also, the SET was estimated to reach 1,680 points this year.
In addition, a war with Iran was expected to support WTI crude oil -- a light crude oil -- in the first and second quarters of this year. Oil’s sideways trend will reach a range of between US$60 to $66 per barrel.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has already cut its production capacity by 500,000 barrels per day since January 1, and will continue until March 31.
This operation was expected to support redemption of energy and utilities stocks, such as SPRC, PTT, PTTEP, TOP, BCP, and IRPC.
Furthermore, the Iran situation was forecast to push global stocks to fluctuate, before funds flows from the US and Europe to Asia in the second quarter of the year.
The fund flows will be especially to those bourses that underperformed last year, like China’s Hang Seng and Malaysia.
Tisco said that the second-quarter effect will possibly trigger buying of Thai stocks by foreign investors this year, after the stocks’ net sell was Bt650 billion in the past seven years.
The bank suggested that the interesting stocks of this month were AP, INTUCH, IRPC, KKP, SUSCO, TVO, and VNT. Meanwhile, the outstanding stocks on Wednesday (January 8) were: BBL, BEM, KKP, SPALI, and BTSGIF.