Analysis: The battle over Marriage Equality Bill – who vote for or against it

Going by Thailand’s long tradition of polarised coalition-opposition politics, the bill should have sunk. Quite to the contrary, the bill garnered the support of 211 lawmakers from both sides of the aisle, while 180 MPs voted against it and 16 lawmakers abstained.

The bill, proposed by Move Forward party-list MP Tunyawaj Kamolwong, was passed in the first reading even after coalition whips had openly announced a day earlier that the parliamentary coordination committee had resolved to shoot it down in the first reading.

The coalition whips even announced their strategy openly of postponing the bill’s voting and that it be taken up with three drafts of the government. They announced they would kill the bill during the voting process.

When lawmakers began their meeting on Wednesday, the Marriage Equality Bill topped the House agenda. It was scheduled to be voted on because it had already been debated earlier. The government had asked the House to put it on hold for the Cabinet to study it first. The Cabinet later rejected it and presented its own draft of the Civil Partnership Bill and an amendment bill to revise the Civil and Commercial Code accordingly.

Initially, everything went smoothly as the coalition whips had planned. The ruling coalition muscled its majority to postpone the vote on the Move Forward bill, to be taken up with the government’s civil partnership bill, the civil code amendment bill and another civil partnership bill proposed by Democrat party-list MP Issara Sereewattanakul.

When voting was called on the Marriage Equality Bill, it did not turn out as planned by the coalition whips because several government MPs voted to support it.

Several factors could be behind ruling coalition MPs breaking ranks and voting for the opposition’s bill.

It could be because they are young politicians who are catching up with the changing trends in the world, or a realisation that it could be a useful bargaining chip for them to seek support from the LGBTQ community in the next election.

While several ruling coalition MPs broke ranks, there was some disarray on the opposition side too. Four Move Forward Party MPs voted against the Marriage Equality Bill. This could be because they were bound by their religious beliefs or by their personal attitude.

The Marriage Equality Bill seeks to allow same-sex marriage with the same rights and responsibilities as heterosexual couples. Instead of separating into another amendment bill, the Marriage Equality Bill also seeks to amend the Civil and Commercial Code accordingly.

A source, who is an official of Parliament, told The Nation that normally MPs would toe their party position without paying attention to the details of the bill. But young politicians, who monitor public sentiment, may break ranks with their parties.

The Nation has examined closely how each political party voted on the Marriage Equality Bill. What has emerged is a clearer picture of an interesting phenomenon.

The Move Forward Party, which sponsored the bill, supported the draft with 43 votes while four MPs voted against it and one abstained. Three of its MPs were not in the meeting room when the vote was called.

A detailed list of how the MPs voted on the bill reveals that 159 MPs from six opposition parties voted for the draft, 11 of them voted against it and two abstained.

The biggest opposition party, Pheu Thai, supported the draft with 106 votes for, three against and one abstention.

Seventy-six MPs of the ruling Palang Pracharath Party voted against the bill, six voted in support and two MPs abstained.

The Democrat Party, which has publicly voiced support for same-sex marriage, gave 13 “Yes” votes but 29 of its MPs said “No” and one abstained. Observers said that those who voted against the bill, might have done so because a Democrat MP has also sponsored an alternative civil partnership bill.

Only two MPs of another ruling coalition partner, the Bhumjaithai Party, supported the bill while 45 of its MPs voted against it and six others abstained.

Nine MPs of Chart Thai Pattana Party, another coalition partner, voted against the bill and none voted in support of it. Three of its MPs were absent during the voting.

The Settakij Thai Party, whose MPs were expelled from the Palang Pracharath Party, supported the bill with 13 votes while two of its MPs voted against it.

Settakij Thai leader Thamanat Prompow came under fire from netizens after they pointed out that he had posted his support for the bill on his Facebook page but his name was not among Settakij Thai MPs who had voted for the bill.

A party source insisted that the leader had voted for the bill but there might have been a technical error.

Despite the joy of Tunyawaj and the LGBTQ community over the passage of the Marriage Equality Bill, they would have to continue to keep their fingers crossed as the first reading is just the beginning of the long journey for a legal draft to be enacted and anything could happen along the way.

First of all, the Marriage Equality Bill would be vetted along with three other drafts from the government’s side by a special House panel, which will be dominated by representatives from the ruling coalition.

Observers believe that the coalition may use its majority to change the content of the bill while synchronising it with other drafts.

Even if the bill passes the vetting with the main content intact, some coalition MPs can still reserve their right to oppose certain sections of the bill.

And when the bill is submitted to the House for the second reading, those who reserve the right can propose changes and the coalition can still use its majority to make the changes.

And if the Marriage Equality Bill is accepted in the third reading with the original and main content intact, it will face a bigger hurdle in the Senate, which is dominated by conservatives appointed by the junta, whose leaders are now in the Cabinet.

Even worse, if the lower house of Parliament is dissolved before the bill is passed in the third reading, the draft will lapse and the bill will become defunct.

As a result, the LGBTQ community will have to relentlessly campaign for support for the bill until it is passed by the Senate. They will also have to hope that the House would not be dissolved before the third reading.