
Siam Global House Plc (GLOBAL)
Q4 2011 results beat expectations as rapid sales expansion led to strong rebate income growth. We believe the robust earnings momentum should continue into CY 2012 on the back of swift expansion and upcountry exposure. Despite the strong Q4 2011, FY 2011’s core net profit formed 98% of our FY11 forecast. We tweak our EPS forecasts for CY12-14 but raise our DCF-based target price (3.5% LTG, 8.7% WACC) given higher new store assumptions in CY 2013-2015. Our OUTPERFORM call is maintained.