Only one verdict will bring 'happiness'

If the court accepts the case against Yingluck Shinawatra on March 19, there will be three possible outcomes: She is acquitted, she is convicted and jailed, or she flees and is convicted in absentia.

I would rule out the first possibility. Acquittal would imply that the coup was unjustified and the junta would thus lose face. This can’t happen. If Yingluck is convicted and jailed, violence might well erupt. There would be rage among her millions of supporters and sharp criticism from the US and the EU, which would call the verdict politically driven. Things would get dicey and volatile. I rule this one out too.

In contrast, the third scenario is a win-win situation. Yingluck skips the country, with the tacit consent of the junta, promising never to return. The court convicts her in absentia and the junta can thumb its nose at the US and the EU, retorting, “See? We told you she was guilty, and her fleeing proves it.”

This way Yingluck escapes a jail sentence, her supporters are pacified, the Democrat Party is rid of a formidable opponent and, most of all, the coup is justified. Everybody lives happily ever after.

Somsak Pola