This coup was a breakthrough

All previous Thai coups have been a matter of rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic. After a year or two of junta rule, it’s been back to Square One politically. But the 2014 putsch (whether you think it was right or wrong) was surely different: an attempted breakthrough coup to reform the country root and branch.

We should recall that the United States was born in an armed insurrection against a lawful government. And breakthrough coups have occurred more recently, for example in China in 1911 and in Portugal in 1974. So it seems that coups are not always a “bad thing”.

Whether the current Thai experiment will succeed is anyone’s guess. But the aim in the medium term seems to be to restore qualified democracy, after which the Army will retreat but maintain a backstage presence and suggest corrections from time to time. This is surely the agenda of the proposed constitution currently under review, since having permanent state bodies to check parliamentarians is part of the proposals.

The most fundamental point is not whether General Prayut Chan-o-cha can legitimise his government for world opinion, or can continue to rule via plebiscite for a further year or two. These issues will soon be forgotten. The question is whether Thailand in the 2020s will be a country with a properly functioning political system. Or will the Titanic resurface once again?

Barry Kenyon