Media

Media 

 

Investment thesis

Although the effective date for Thailand’s channel rearrangement is 2 Dec, some platforms such as PSI have already changed their channel numbering in advance since late Oct. Hence, all digital TV channel’s ratings dropped in Nov as a result. We believe that the strong variety content will draw viewers back to normal levels in Dec. The weekend ratings outlook of super-prime Thai soap operas (SPSO) from  analog channels (BEC’s HD and Channel 7) remained weak in Nov after losing audience share to new digital TV channels, evidenced by lower ratings of their new Thai SPSO in weekend slots—Plabplueng See Chompoo on BEC HD (average rating of 4.5) and Ban Sai Tong. Our best picks remain WORK and RS for the next six-nine-month investment horizon and GRAMMY for the next 12 months.

BEC HD’s ratings rose while Channel 7’s fell as expected in Nov.

Ratings of all analog channels except BEC HD fell MoM—MCOT (0.191, down 6% MoM) and Channel 7 (2.51, down 19% MoM). BEC’s HD rating rose 5% MoM to 2.06. The higher rating at BEC HD came from its stronger Thai SPSO—Saphai Jao (average rating of 6.5) and Song Huajai Nee Phuea Thoe (last episode rating of 8). We believe that the BEC HD’s rating should rise further in Dec because of the decent feedback from the final round of The Voice (last episode rating of 6.5) and the last episode of Saphai Jao. Whereas, Channel 7’s rating is expected to fall further in, led by the poor response to its Thai SPSO, especially its weekend showing. Although it cut the episode numbers of its Thai SPSO from the low rating Tapod Logan, its new Thai SPSO Ban Sai Tong also registered a disappointing rating of 5 against 8-12 for its historical offering.

Short-term impact of channel reshuffle

With the rearrangement of digital TV channel numbers coming into effect on some platforms, there was some confusion among viewers, which led all digital TV channel ratings to drop in Nov—GMM25’s rating dropped 35% MoM to 0.067, WORK’s slid 12% MoM to 0.71, MONO’s retracted 9% MoM to 0.37, GMM ONE’s slipped 8% MoM to 0.25 and RS’s rating declined 1% MoM to 0.514.

All digital channel ratings will get back on track in Dec.

We believe that the channel reshuffle regulation will have a short-term impact and viewers will be eager to track the channels’ new locations down, due to their strong content. We expect GRAMMY ONE and GMM25 ratings to rise in Dec, bolstered by new the Thai SPSO, Jood Nud Fun, on the ONE Channel and the last episode of teenage soap opera Hormones 3: The Final Season and Ugly Duckling Series: Boy’s Paradise on GMM channel. RS’ intense new Thai SPSO Mong Kood Rid Sa Ya and Nang Marn will push its ratings up in Dec. Strong variety content and its Thai SPSO Dok Mai Lai Pad Korn (average rating of 2.5) will augment WORK’s rating for this month. MONO’s rating will return to its usual level, led by its new Hollywood blockbusters.