Talks between ‘rabbit and lion’ will have predictable end

Is it the current status quo of China’s artificially built islands, or the status quo prior to their construction? If Manila accepts the current status quo, we are already losers. China will simply stalemate the negotiations. And if the starting point is the status quo ante, then it will be for us to stalemate the negotiations.

If we negotiate bilaterally with China, there’s also the danger that she concedes to us all the areas contested by other claimants – Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan. Then when China meets with other claimants, she will in turn cede to them the areas we now possess, like Ayungin Shoal and Kalayaan Island. In other words, China will make the various claimants quarrel with each other, with Beijing acting as the referee.

A word of caution, too: Negotiations between the lion and the rabbit will have a predictable result – the rabbit will end up in the stomach of the lion. If we negotiate one on one with Beijing, she can bully us due to the disparity in size of our armed forces. Thus, it is better to negotiate in concert with our Asean partners. This is also a reminder that if we negotiate with China bilaterally we will break ranks with our Asean partners. Isolation from the Asean is something we can ill afford.

Hermenegildo C Cruz

Retired Philippine ambassador