
But we in Southeast Asia should be cheering every fresh blow exchanged between the global trade giants.
The United States has imposed tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. China retaliated immediately by slapping new taxes on $60 billion of American imports. China’s sanctions are far lower than America’s sanctions for the simple reason that Beijing is running out of US exports to penalise. This is one reason why Trump believes that the United States can easily win a trade war with China.
But Beijing has other weapons in its armoury that could prove decisive. China could undermine US efforts to disarm North Korea by disregarding the de facto blockade Washington has imposed. If the trade war escalates further, China could also confront the United States in the South China Sea. Beijing’s other options include attempting to isolate Taiwan, deepening ties with Russia as a counterbalance to the US and accelerating its military build-up.
However, the US-China trade war is also creating some winners in Southeast Asia. According to Bloomberg: “The region is capitalising on a rush of new orders and production moves as firms reconsider their business in US and China amid a deepening trade war. About one-third of more than 430 American companies in China have or are considering moving production sites abroad amid the tensions, according to survey results released September 13 by the American Chamber-China and the American Chamber-Shanghai. Southeast Asia was their top destination.”
Southeast Asia cannot afford to miss participating in this major wave of industrial relocations from an increasingly expensive China.
Jumel G Estrañero