Duterte’s Sulu offensive risks regional humanitarian crisis

The impact of his gung-ho governance is shaking not just the country but the wider region, boosting domestic approval ratings, and knocking noses out of joint – so far Duterte’s declared “sons of whores” include Barack Obama, Pope Francis and the US ambassador to the Philippines.

At home Duterte currently enjoys record approval ratings of 91 per cent. No other leader of a democratic country enjoys this level of public support. Vladimir Putin is currently closest at 82 per cent.

While he basks in the approval of the Filipino people, the body count in Duterte’s “war on drugs” continues to climb. More than 2,500 people have already lost their lives in this brutal conflict – a death rate of around 38 people per day.

His ambitions have now turned to the simmering and decades-long insurgency in the southern Mindanao region.

In the wake of last week’s deadly bombing in Davao City, his hometown, he has vowed to personally “tear apart and eat” Abu Sayyaf militants. 

Duterte has intensified offensive military operations against Abu Sayyaf, beginning with the largest troop deployment in recent memory, of 9,000 soldiers to Sulu province. 

For Malaysia, this renewed offensive in Sulu is cause for serious concern, since it affects national security in neighbouring Sabah region.

It is likely that Abu Sayyaf militants seeking refuge from the escalating conflict with Philippine troops will flee to Malaysian territory. It is unlikely that Malaysia will permit the Philippines to conduct operations within its waters. As such, Malaysian security forces must then decide whether to conduct operations to uproot and terminate the Abu Sayyaf presence on home soil.

Malaysia will not be seen as a neutral party in that fight, which could escalate to a cross-border conflict. The result would be a humanitarian crisis as civilians fled to Sabah to escape the fighting, a repeat of what happened back in the 1970s.

Complicating matters further is that Duterte said in May that he would press the Philippines’ contentious claim to Malaysia’s Sabah state.

Azrul Mohd Khalib

Kuala Lumpur

(From The Star/ANN)