THURSDAY, March 28, 2024
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U.S. upbeat about nuclear freeze with Russia as Moscow balks

U.S. upbeat about nuclear freeze with Russia as Moscow balks

The U.S. believes President Vladimir Putin has tentatively committed to freezing nuclear-weapons stockpiles as part of broader arms-control talks, said a person familiar with the Trump administration's view, although officials in Moscow downplayed prospects for a deal.

The person, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations, said Friday that President Donald Trump and Putin agreed on the idea of a freeze in a phone call, but that details have yet to be settled.

National Security Adviser Robert O'Brien got similar signals in a recent meeting with Russian security chief Nikolai Patrushev, the person said.

The U.S. proposal is that the two sides would declare how many nuclear warheads they hold and commit not to exceed the number. The freeze would be followed by an extension of the New START treaty, which limits the size of the U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear arsenals and is set to expire in February.

Discussions will continue next week, the person said, with the U.S. signaling that Russia will get a better deal before the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 3 than it would after.

Trump is under political pressure to demonstrate foreign-policy wins in his race for re-election against Joe Biden, whom he trails in national and many key state polls. An extension of New START and progress toward a broader nuclear agreement would allow him to counter arguments from Democrats that he's walked away from deals -- such as the Paris climate accord and the Iran nuclear agreement -- without crafting any new ones.

Asked Friday about the U.S. assertion of progress, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova referred to comments from a day earlier in which she said it would be "premature to talk about substantial progress."

"A lot is left to do to bring the positions closer together," she said then.

The person familiar with the U.S. negotiating position said it was possible that the high-level blessing for a deal hadn't filtered down to the rest of the Russian bureaucracy yet.

Either way, the new U.S. position marks a significant walk-back from an earlier insistence that it wouldn't accept an extension of New START without three things: both sides declaring all their nuclear warheads; more strict verification measures; and China taking part in negotiations.

The person said future arms control talks must be multilateral and incorporate broad verification measures, but made clear those wouldn't be required for an immediate deal.

Both Russia and China, which is rapidly expanding its nuclear stockpile, had strongly resisted the idea of three-way talks. Russia has sought a straight five-year extension of New START.

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